Kenny has good day but needs to connect

Analysis: A contract is the new way to voters' hearts, writes Mark Hennessy , political correspondent

Analysis:

A contract is the new way to voters' hearts, writes Mark Hennessy, political correspondent

Fine Gael's Enda Kenny had a good day at the office on Saturday under the bright lights of his party's ardfheis, producing, undoubtedly, his finest speech as leader.

It needed to be. Less than two months out from a general election, Kenny has yet, it seems, to make a real connection with the majority of the electorate.

Faced with Bertie Ahern's promise-laden speech in the same hall a week before, Kenny opted for a different route, choosing feelings over figures.

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Offering voters "a contract for a better Ireland", the Fine Gael leader chose to sow doubt among voters about the quality of the Government's word: "We stand in the wreckage of broken promises. We are knee-deep in the wreckage of broken promises. The Government's record speaks for itself," he said.

The language and strategy owes much, accidentally or otherwise, to the United States, where the Republican Party reaped dividends after it produced a "Contract With America" in 1994.

Certainly, Kenny has heeded US politicians' example by emphasising family and background, as could be judged by his reference to his lighthouse-keeper grandfather.

The decision that television coverage should close as he stood on stage with his wife, Fionnuala, rather than by milling TDs as happens with Mr Ahern, is hardly accidental either.

His vow to quit if the "contract for a better Ireland" is not honoured was a nice flourish to end a well-crafted, well-delivered speech, but it need not detain us too much longer.

Before the Fianna Fáil ardfheis, Fine Gael had feared that Fianna Fáil would successfully manage to pitch their economic experience over other parties' inexperience. They had good reason for believing this, given the frequent declarations about prudence given by Minister for Finance Brian Cowen and other ministers.

Now, however, Fine Gael is convinced that Fianna Fáil has shot itself in the foot by shifting from prudence to promises too quickly, without preparing the audience for the change in gear.

Fine Gael now intends to position itself as the sensible one, yet one who is still able to offer inducements while promising vastly improved public services.

The call of "remember 1977" when a Fianna Fáil election manifesto promised the sun, moon and stars - even if it only really resonates with the 40-plus age group - will be heard loudly between now and polling day.

Curiously, however, there is far less difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil's promises than one could be forgiven for thinking at first glance. Both promise standard tax rate cuts, tax bands and credits indexation, more gardaí and teachers, improved hospitals, and help for stay-at-home parents.

Certainly, there are differences. Fianna Fáil has committed itself to halving PRSI rates, while Fine Gael has opted for house stamp duties.

Presumably, if elected, Fine Gael, though, would not abandon most of the €180 billion National Development Plan, even if some of it had to be rewritten.

While Mr Kenny may have shied from adding new spending items on Saturday night, many of his colleagues were far less restrained in their pledges.

The difference, however, is that Kenny has - for now - managed to end up in a position where he appears as Mr Sensible, while Mr Ahern is painted as Mr Flaithiúlach, even if neither reality is particularly accurate.

Given rising interest rates, and some economic jitters, it may be a good place to be, since parties have to convince voters that they will not be reckless. Equally, however, they must also not appear too gloomy, and voters in the past have on occasions seen Fine Gael as the harbingers of doom.

On health, crime and education, which strike at the hearts of key groups of voters, Kenny pushed all of the buttons usually so beloved by Fine Gael supporters. However, politicians have mistakenly judged before that health would be the "swing" factor, believing voters when they declared their passionate concern for their fellows.

Back in 2002, health featured again and again until the campaign began, and then it pretty much disappeared from view as voters turned their attentions to more selfish concerns.

Today, the feeling, perhaps, has changed. The danger of getting sick from a hospital-acquired infection such as MRSA has created fear even among those who are not ill.

While voters may be convinced that the health system is a shambles, it is far less clear that they believe that any politician can fix it.

Nevertheless, it feeds into Fine Gael's core pitch to the electorate: that Fianna Fáil has been in power too long. Six months ago, Fine Gael optimistically declared that it would win 60 seats. Today, those predictions are more quietly spoken about, if at all.

But 60 seats are not needed, assuming that Labour holds its own, and the Greens make, as expected, substantial gains - as long as those gains do not come at its expense.

The target is still light years away from Fine Gael, but Kenny has managed to reach seemingly unattainable victories before, as he showed in the 2004 local and European elections. Five years in charge, he has put Fine Gael back in the game, which very few would have predicted when he first took the reins from Michael Noonan.

"It's like what Mohammed Ali said about Sonny Listen," Kenny said of Bertie Ahern in a pre-speech video, "He's a nice guy, but he's in my job." In two months, we will find out if he is right, or heading back to Mayo.