LEBANON: Syria does not stand to benefit very much from yesterday's assassination, writes Michael Jansen
The assassination of Lebanon's industry minister Pierre Gemayel yesterday plunged the crisis-ridden government of Fuad Siniora into disarray. While Mr Siniora insists that his cabinet, now depleted by seven ministers, will soldier on, its ability to govern is certain to be reduced.
In a poll last week, 70 per cent of Lebanese said they wanted the Siniora government to be dissolved and replaced by a national unity government, a move Mr Siniora has been resisting since the end of Israel's unsuccessful 34-day offensive against Hizbullah in July and August.
Mr Gemayel, grandson of the founder of the right-wing Maronite Christian Phalange party, was a key member of the country's post-independence political elite and a stalwart of the anti-Syrian ruling coalition.
He is the fourth Lebanese political figure to be slain since former premier Rafiq Hariri was murdered in February 2005, an event which led to the withdrawal of Syria's troops and intelligence apparatus from Lebanon in April of that year.
Although Syria was promptly blamed by members of the Lebanese governing coalition, the killing took place at a time Damascus was gradually regaining influence on the regional stage. The Bush administration was under pressure to talk to Syria and its ally Iran in the hope that Iraq's neighbours would help pacify the situation in that war-torn country.
Furthermore, Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem had just completed a successful visit to Baghdad, during which full diplomatic relations were re-established after a 24-year rupture.
In recent weeks, Syria has received EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and other western dignitaries seeking to bring Syria in from the cold of international ostracism.
Analysts believe, therefore, that the assassination of Mr Gemayel took place at the worst possible moment for Syria.
Charged with yet another violent intervention in Lebanon's affairs, Damascus can expect its isolation to be extended for some time, particularly by the Bush administration which has been resisting calls to initiate a dialogue with Syria as well as Iran.
Mr Gemayel's killing took place at a bad time for the Shia Hizbullah movement, which recently pulled its five ministers out of the government to protest its refusal to include the movement's Christian ally, Michel Aoun, in a national unity coalition. A sixth minister tied to President Emile Lahoud also resigned.
Hizbullah has been threatening to mount popular demonstrations in the streets of Lebanon's capital until its demand for a new government is met.
But due to tension arising from Mr Gemayel's assassination, Hizbullah could postpone popular protests in order to avoid violent confrontations with Phalangists who hold Hizbullah, an ally of Syria, partly responsible for their leader's death.
This means Hizbullah could be deprived of its main means for exerting pressure on Mr Siniora to form a national unity government. This assassination may also lend impetus to the US and French-led drive to bring to book before an international tribunal those accused by a UN commission of involvement in the murder of Mr Hariri.
The proposal for the establishment of this tribunal was submitted last month to the Lebanese government, approved following the resignation of the Hizbullah ministers, and returned to the Security Council for implementation. This is expected to take place after the commission presents its final report to the council in mid-December.
Although high-ranking Lebanese and Syrian intelligence offi- cers have been implicated in the assassination of Mr Hariri, Damascus insists that it had nothing to do with the operation.
This new assassination is likely to confirm Syria's guilt in the minds of those who want to hold Damascus responsible.
Finally, yesterday's murder is certain to act as a spur to young Lebanese professionals to emigrate because they no longer feel they have a future in such an unstable country.
Many of those who had returned to Lebanon in recent years in the belief that it was on the road to recovery after its protracted civil war departed after Israel's onslaught. Many more could leave following the Gemayel assassination.