NORTH KOREA: Kim Jong-il may not win any concessions from his provocations this time, writes Jonathan Watts
A professed nuclear-armed state launches an intercontinental missile and six other rockets in defiance of almost the entire international community. Is it a prelude to war, a bargaining tactic or a warning?
In the long run, North Korea's test firing may prove to be one or all of the above, but in the short-term it can be understood as a cry for attention.
Kim Jong-il has a record of provocations to raise the profile of his otherwise small, poor and diplomatically-isolated nation.
But even by his standards, this launch was dramatic - it is Pyongyang's biggest demonstration of military force since he came to power in 1994.
The rockets were fired while America was watching the launch of a space shuttle and celebrating Independence Day.
The surge of concern that has followed will have delighted Mr Kim, who will expect incentives to cool his temper. At first sight, he has reason to be confident.
These launches can be put alongside the test firing of a missile over Japan in 1998, Pyongyang's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty in 2003 or its 2005 declaration - still unproven by tests - that it had a nuclear deterrent.
Each time Mr Kim won concessions: the visit by the US secretary of state Madeleine Albright to Pyongyang in 2000, six-party talks from 2003, and Washington's declaration last year that it was not focused on regime change in Pyongyang.
This time it may be he has overplayed his hand. The main motive for the launch is to force the US into bilateral talks and relieve pressure on North Korea's financial system, which is being choked by a crackdown on money laundering and counterfeiting. Many of its wealthiest citizens cannot access their overseas foreign currency and businesses cannot make remittances.
But Mr Kim has upset the few sympathisers he had left. The test-firing is a slap in the face for China. Beijing has spent three years trying to forge a diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis.
Only last week its prime minister, Wen Jiabao, called on North Korea not to go ahead with a launch. China must now weigh its rage at being ignored by a "little brother" against its long-term strategy of maintaining a buffer nation on its north-eastern border.
South Korean patience is also stretched. Even the office of the pro-engagement president, Roh Moo-hyun, called the launch a provocation that would strengthen the North's enemies.
That is certainly true in the US and Japan, where voices calling for negotiation and compromise are now likely to be shouted down.
Tokyo has responded with great firmness - suspending ferry services between the two countries and calling for yesterday's meeting of the United Nations Security Council.
But perhaps the biggest difference is that the test firing was not a success. The Taepodong-2 missile, designed to reach Alaska, fell into the sea less than a minute after launch.
It is unclear whether this was because of a failure, an order to abort or because - in some last-minute compromise - it was filled only with a small amount of fuel so it would not fly over Japan and too close to the US. Whatever the reason, it provides ammunition for those who argue that Mr Kim is losing his touch.