The German Chancellor's campaign to win a record fifth term in office received a badly needed boost last night when Dr Helmut Kohl's conservative allies in the Christian Social Union (CSU) won a resounding victory in Bavaria's state election.
Early projections gave the CSU 52 per cent of the vote, slightly less than in 1994 but comfortably above the goal of 50 per cent the party set itself.
The opposition Social Democrats (SPD) saw their vote remain stable at 30 per cent, despite energetic campaigning from the party's candidate for chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroder. The Greens looked set to retain their seats in Bavaria's state parliament with just over 5 per cent of the vote.
Mr Peter Hintze, general secretary of Dr Kohl's Christian Democrats (CDU), welcomed the result as a sign that, although his party continues to trail the SPD by five points in most polls, the tide was finally turning in its favour.
"This confirms the mood swing against the Social Democrats and Greens and shows the limited reliability of opinion polls at a time when so many voters only make up their minds at the last minute. When they do, they use their vote carefully and choose security and competence rather than risk," he said.
The SPD insisted that the result would have no impact on the outcome of Germany's federal election on September 27th and pointed out that the CSU played down its association with Dr Kohl throughout the campaign.
"We're on the road to victory, and this vote will not change that. The choice on September 27th is between Gerhard Schroder and Helmut Kohl," said the SPD general secretary, Mr Franz Munte fering.
Most analysts attributed yesterday's result to the popularity of Bavaria's premier, Mr Edmund Stoiber. Bavaria has the lowest unemployment and the highest level of investment of all Germany's 16 federal states. Mr Stoiber has attracted numerous high-tech industries to what was once a predominantly agricultural region.
But he has made a point of preserving traditional Bavarian values throughout the technological transformation, a strategy he calls "laptop and Lederhosen". A harsh critic of efforts to make Germany a more multicultural society, he favours deporting foreigners who commit crimes and cutting benefits to asylum-seekers.
Mr Stoiber, an ascetic figure who looks uncomfortable holding a foaming Stein of beer, managed a broad smile at last night's result.
"The voters have voted for a strong Bavaria with a clear policy on law and order and on foreigners," he said.
Dr Kohl's supporters hope that yesterday's vote will persuade floating voters that the Chancellor still has a future. But the Greens' chairman, Mr Jurgen Trittin, said the most striking feature about the CSU campaign in Bavaria was the extent to which the party hid the Chancellor from view.
"It shows that there is still one way the conservatives can win an election - if they leave the Chancellor out of it," he said.
