IN THE first indication that his peace plan has been changed from above, Russia's security chief, Gen Alexander Lebed, has asked Chechen negotiators to put a 10-year moratorium on their claims for independence.
The original plan accepted by the Chechen side set the moratorium period at five years, but after six days of silence from President Boris Yeltsin and criticism of the plan from Gen Lebed's main political rival, Prime Minister Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, details appear to have been altered and the official Russian TV news last night described the talks as having become "difficult".
The Chechen delegation, which arrived six hours late for the negotiations, was led by the military commander, Mr Aslan Maskhadov, who is a political moderate. The Chechen president, Mr Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev, who takes a tougher line on independence, was absent.
The last-minute changes, coordinated at the highest level, according to Mr Chernomyrdin, may have more to do with an internal Kremlin power struggle than attempts to reach a political settlement in Chechnya.
With President Yeltsin obviously in poor health, the possibility exists that he may not fulfill his four-year term, which began when he was inaugurated earlier this month. Should Gen Lebed settle the Chechen problem his popularity would rise to such an extent that he would be a strong favourite to win the presidency.
"The character of the Russians is incomparably more subtle and more cunning than that of the inhabitants of all of Europe. Any one of those, even if he has the very sharpest wit, even an Italian, is more simple-minded. But every Russian, even one who is not intelligent, knows how to pretend so well, he will fool and get the better of anybody."
The above quotation might be construed as anti-Russian if it did not come from one of Russia's greatest writers. Nikolai Vasiliyevich Gogol knew what he was talking about.
When the minds of several Russians aid pitted against each other the results can be impossible for a simple westerner to predict.
Gen Lebed has quite a lewd other pitfalls to overcome before a political settlement leading to long-term peace is achieved. Already disgruntled military commanders in the region are complaining that the Chechensi are breaking the ceasefire terms by not removing as many of their soldiers as they promised. Some commanders are only too anxious to have another crack at defeating an enemy which has humiliated the might of the Russian armed forces.
Should the talks fail, Gene Lebed warns, violence could engulf the entire northern Caucasus region with its intricate patchwork of nationalities, many of them divided by centuries of animosity. It remains to be seen if those who oppose Gen Lebed in the Kremlin are prepared to take such a risk.
Reuter adds: Russia's peace envoy Gen Alexander Lebed declared the 20-month Chechen conflict over yesterday after the and rebel leaders agreed steps to bring lasting peace to the breakaway region.
Lebed signed a deal with rebel chief-of-staff Aslan Maskhadov deferring any decision on whether Chechnya should be independent from the Russian Federation until December 31, 2001. A joint commission will also be set up by October 1 to monitor the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Chechnya.
