Fine Gael is set to make gains in Kerry South at the expense of its prospective coalition partner, writes Michael O'Regan, parliamentary reporter
Labour is in deep trouble in Kerry South. Its sitting TD, Breeda Moynihan-Cronin, is retiring from politics on health grounds, and the party appears to have no strong candidate to take on the challenge from a resurgent Fine Gael.
Ms Moynihan-Cronin's decision to stand down came as a blow to Labour leader Pat Rabbitte, who was relying on Kerry South as a relatively safe bet to help win enough seats to participate in the next government. She had even seemed destined for ministerial office if Labour was in power.
Her decision has brought to an end a remarkable political dynasty stretching back to the 1950s. Her late father, Michael Moynihan, contested general elections from 1954 until his eventual election to the Dáil in 1981, having served as a senator for a period. It mirrored the Spring political dynasty in neighbouring Kerry North, which is also now over.
Mr Moynihan served as a minister of state, with responsibility for tourism, in the 1982-87 Fine Gael-Labour coalition in which the then Labour leader, Dick Spring, Labour TD for Kerry North, was tánaiste. Mr Rabbitte must wonder at his bad luck as two political dynasties in the county come to an end under his stewardship.
Labour is pinning its hopes on Killarney-based former Labour councillor, Michael Gleeson, returning to the fold.
Now a member of South Kerry Independent Alliance, he is a high-profile and articulate member of Kerry County Council and Killarney Town Council.
Mr Gleeson left Labour in the early 1990s over a row about local authority nominations.
A former Kerry GAA star, he appears to be reluctant to take on the Labour mantle despite overtures from the party, although he undoubtedly represents Labour's best chance of holding the seat.
He told The Irish Times: "My political survival, since 1992 to 2006, is attributable to the commitment and loyalty of the members of South Kerry Independent Alliance. My ongoing commitment is to that party. I believe in the overall concept of loyalty."
His remarks hardly represent an embrace of his former party and are seen locally as an indication that he will not assume the Labour banner in the general election.
Kerry South is an intensely competitive constituency. Apart from Ms Moynihan-Cronin, the other two seats are held by Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism John O'Donoghue and Independent Jackie Healy-Rae.
Mr O'Donoghue, from Cahirciveen, who has poured vast departmental funds into the constituency, will be running with Fianna Fáil councillor Tom Fleming, who was a mere 203 votes behind Mr Healy-Rae for the third seat in the 2002 election.
Mr Healy-Rae, a wily political ex-Fianna Fáil operator who honed his political skills as part of Neil Blaney's legendary by-election organisation in the 1960s, will run again. Two of his sons, Mike and Danny Healy-Rae, are members of Kerry County Council.
Fine Gael's Michael Begley, a former junior minister, held a seat in the constituency from 1969 to 1989. But party infighting saw a once safe seat slip away. In recent years, the party's only Oireachtas member has been Killarney-based Senator Paul Coghlan, a consistently impressive member in the Upper House.
This time, Fine Gael is targeting Kerry South for a gain. Two county councillors have been chosen to contest the general election, Séamus "Cosai" Fitzgerald, from the Dingle electoral area, and Tom Sheahan, from the Killarney electoral area.
Party leader Enda Kenny, who holidays every year in south Kerry, has been keeping a close eye on their progress.
Given Labour's apparent weakness, it looks as if Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could take a seat each, with a battle royal for the third seat. If Mr Gleeson turns down Labour's overtures, the party may look to Killarney town councillor, Seán O'Grady, or Ms Moynihan-Cronin's parliamentary assistant, Owen O'Shea, from Milltown, a strong bet to take a seat for the party in the long-term.
But, as of now, the immediate electoral prospects for Labour in Kerry South look bleak, with Fine Gael likely to gain from its political misfortune.