LONDON - A Conservative election victory on May 1st would now be the biggest British political upset of the post war era. No governing party has entered an election campaign at such a disadvantage in the polls as Mr Major's does this week. Labour's poll lead is unprecedented in both size and duration for an opposition in modern British political history.
Labour has led for so consecutive months and its lead has not dropped below double figures since December 1993. In the most recent Guardian/ICM poll, taken between February 28th and March 2nd, Labour led by 18 points. The voting intention figures were Labour 48 per cent, Conservatives 30, Liberal Democrats 16 and others six.