Labour likely to hold on under pressure

DUBLIN Central, Dublin North Central. Only a word between them but a social chasm

DUBLIN Central, Dublin North Central. Only a word between them but a social chasm. Dublin Central's lampposts carry posters for Tony Gregory, Joe Costello, Christy Burke of Sinn Fein - hardly a sign of Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. And as for the PDs ... Gerry Adams smiles down from the Mountain View Court flats.

Over the Five Lamps bridge and we are in Fairview, genteel with redbrick houses, the lampposts bedecked with the posters of the mainstream parties. The Catholic Archbishop of Dublin lives here.

The Fianna Fail's leader's father was farm manager in All Hallows College, hence Mr Bertie Ahern's claim to a firming background, although in truth, there isn't much of a rural vote in Dublin North Central. It is home to one of the State's largest hospitals, Beaumont. In short, the constituency is the essence of respectability.

And yet, the candidates are finding on the canvass that the problems of the constituency to the south of them are now theirs.

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People are concerned about groups of young people congregating in Fairview Park and taking drugs. Many doubt if any of the political parties has the answer to the drugs problem and are speaking of the kind of solution favoured by Concerned Parents Against Drugs. They no longer shudder when they pass the graffiti on the walls of the Dublin Central flats: St Patrick banished the snakes, BAD (Ballybough Against Drugs) will banish the pushers.

The other big local issue is the Port Tunnel. This is of particular concern to residents in the Beaumont/Whitehall area, where the northern entrance is to be built. The residents of Marino are worried the excavation works beneath them will damage the foundations of their homes. Residents of East Wall Road do not welcome the prospect of even more heavy traffic.

Luckily for the candidates, Dublin Corporation decided to postpone a final vote by the City Council on the £130 million project until after the election.

Dublin North Central has two outgoing Fianna Fail TDs, Sean Haughey and Ivor Callely one Fine Gael TD, the Minister for Enterprise and Employment, Mr Bruton, and the polltopper in 1992, Labour's Derek McDowell. Even P.J. Mara, Fianna Fail's national director of elections - and a former director of elections in North Central - expects that Bruton will top the poll this time. Haughey and Callely are also expected to get back.

McDowell is suffering from the relative disillusionment with Labour compared with the euphoria that swept him to the top in 1992. He agrees the first three seats are safe. He thinks he will get back "though he would be a very complacent politician who said his reelection is in the bag".

The chase for the fourth seat will lie between McDowell and Sean Dublin Bay Loft us, who has decided to run again. Loft us is well respected in the constituency. He fought the good fight on the environment long before anybody heard of the Greens. However, his organisation on the ground is inferior to McDowell's. Also, McDowell should get the transfers from candidates like Helen Lahert (Democratic Left) and Finian McGrath. Mr McGrath, a community activist, is running again as an independent candidate with jobs, health, education and the environment at the forefront of his campaign. But unless there is a collapse in the Labour Party vote McDowell should get back.

Bruton has two running mates, Niamh Cosgrave, a hepatitis C campaigner and daughter of the former Fine Gael TD Michael J. Cosgrave, and Cathy Fay from an oldline Fine Gael family in the constituency. Even if Bruton polls well he is unlikely to bring in a second Fine Gael candidate. There is no love lost between the two women: Fay resents Cosgrave as a "parachute" candidate imposed by head office.

Missing from the canvass in North Central for the first time in many years is Charlie Haughey. In his heyday, Haughey used to bring in three FF candidates. Not too much should be read into the fact that he is not on the canvass, according to his son, Sean. "He has been withdrawing more and more from political life. The current controversies are not surfacing in the campaign," Sean Haughey said.