CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Kildare South: No change likely in Kildare South, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter, despite FF challenge for second seat
Fianna Fáil is challenging for two of the three seats in Kildare South. In the 1997 election, the party's second candidate, Mr Seán Ó Fearghail, trailed Labour's Mr Jack Wall, who took the last seat, by just 439 votes. Since then, he has been preparing for this election.
Mr Ó Fearghail, now a senator, topped the poll in the 1999 local elections in the Kildare electoral area with an impressive 1,937 first preferences, as the party won three of the six seats.
So, with Fine Gael's Mr Alan Dukes and Fianna Fáil's Mr Sean Power likely to take two of the seats, the battle for the third seat is expected to be between Mr Wall and Mr Ó Fearghail.
While Mr Ó Fearghail has been strengthening his base, so has Mr Wall. Last time, Mr Wall took the seat at a time when his party's fortunes nationally were in decline from the unprecedented high of 1992.
Although the Labour vote in the constituency fell by 6.5 per cent to 20.3 per cent, he was second to poll-topper Mr Dukes in first preferences, performing better than many of his high-profile colleagues elsewhere throughout the State. Since then, Mr Wall has been a solid performer as his party's spokesman on defence. His association with the GAA in Kildare is a significant boost to his political fortunes. And Labour, nationally, is in a much stronger position in this election.
After the last election, Fianna Fáil's three-candidate strategy was seen by some within the party as a mistake. Mr Christy Walsh polled a mere 662 votes, and this time the party has opted to run Mr Power and Mr Ó Fearghail on their own.
Much could depend on the performance of Senator John Dardis of the PDs. Mr Dardis has been around for his party's good times and bad, and is a determined electoral performer. Had Kildare remained a five-seater, rather than two three-seaters, he might well have made it to the Dáil in circumstances where the party was enjoying a national swing. But now he faces an uphill battle, as the bigger parties dominate Kildare South.
Last time, his 13.5 per cent of the vote was bigger than any of his PD colleagues in other constituencies, and his 3,895 first preferences represented an increase of 300 on 1992.
With a FF-PD pact in place, his vote provided Fianna Fáil with a 74.23 per cent transfer rate. It remains to be seen what will happen this time, when, far from a pact, Mr Dardis and his colleagues, most notably the party's president, Mr Michael McDowell, have been striving to distance the PDs from their Government partners.
As in 1997, Mr Dukes's running mate is Mr Rainsford Hendy, a councillor for the Athy electoral area. Last time, he polled 1,371 first preferences, leaving Fine Gael with no realistic chance of taking a second seat.
Mr Dukes, however, could well head the poll again. A former party leader, senior minister and outgoing spokesman on agriculture, he enjoys a very high profile, representing the party in a number of key television debates during the campaign. He is still spoken of by some sections of the party's national organisation as a possible future leader, if Mr Noonan stands down in the event of Fine Gael remaining in opposition.
Prediction: FF 1; FG 1; Lab 1. No change.