Labour rebels will today end Mr Tony Blair's seven-month honeymoon by defying whips and voting against cuts to child benefit for lone parents. Government whips are expecting around 20 MPs - largely left-wingers - to risk tough party sanctions in their first real act of defiance since the May general election. Another handful are expected to abstain. Some ministerial aides, usually regarded as part of the government "payroll vote", are expected to join the abstentions.
But the government will win the key votes comfortably, with the Tory leader, Mr William Hague, signalling yesterday that his party would back the cuts which the last Tory government proposed.
Though the chief whip, Mr Nick Brown, is refusing to discuss the punishment to be meted out to rebels and some whips were calling for "the Armageddon option" of suspension from the Parliamentary Labour Party and perhaps even ultimate deselection for anyone voting against a three-line whip, a softer line is likely. "I don't think there will be hanging at dawn," one whip said.
But there is no doubt that today's votes on the bill represent a critical watershed for Labour. Would-be rebels insist they must oppose the cuts in principle, but Blair loyalists insist this is a rebellion led largely by the hard left which must be faced down if further spending "wish-lists" are to be avoided.
The row centres upon one of two proposals to cut benefits to lone parents unveiled in the Tories' final Budget in office. One cut to a premium for lone parents on income support has already been passed by means of a regulation in parliament. The second cut relates to child benefit and is included in the broader Social Security Bill under debate tomorrow.
At present, lone parents receive £17.10 per week for their oldest child, while couples receive just £11.05. Under the proposals, lone parents will receive the same as couples. The combination of both cuts will mean new claimants from April receiving between £5 and £10.25 less in benefit from April than current claimants do.
Meanwhile, government plans to shape the National Health Service for the next 50 years were last night welcomed by doctors, nurses and union chiefs. A far-reaching White Paper, announced in parliament yesterday, outlines a 10-year modernisation programme, which ministers say will revolutionise the service.