THE composition of the next Government depends in large measure on the performance of the Labour Party. If as the polls indicate, support for it has slumped since the last election, several prominent Labour figures could today be contemplating their political mortality at the hands of a fickle public.
In government for 10 out of the last 15 years, Labour has played the role of king-maker to both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. But, as most of the 2.7 million voters prepared to go to the polls, bookmakers were offering odds of 11/10 on such possibilities as the Education Minister, Ms Breathnach, losing her scat in Dun Laoghaire.
With support reaching 19 per cent in 1992, the party swept to power with an astonishing 33 Dail seats, the best performance in its history. Labour's opulent representation in the 27th Dail included 15 new faces, most of them previously unknown nationally. They were: Moosajee Bhamjee in Clare; Joe Costello in Dublin Central; Derek McDowell in Dublin North Central; Sean Kenny and Tommy Broughan in Dublin North East; Roisin Shortall in Dublin North West; Eithne Fitzgerald in Dublin South; Pat Upton in Dublin South Central; Eamon Walsh in Dublin South West; Joan Burton in Dublin West; Niamh Bhreathnach in Dun Laoghaire; Breeda Moynihan-Cronin in Kerry South; Brian Fitzgerald in Meath; Declan Bree in Sligo/Leitrim; and Willie Penrose in Westmeath.
From this group of novices to national politics, Niamh Bhreathnach was instantly elevated to senior ministerial rank and Joan Burton and Eithne Fitzgerald became junior ministers.
The public, however, did not remain faithful to the party. The Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls over the last 18 months have given Labour about 12 per cent support.
Other polls placed them lower. An Irish Independent/IMS eve-of-election poll put them at only 9 per cent.
If the MRBI predictions hold up the party could, despite a dramatic fall from its 1992 level, still manage to secure in or around 25 seats: the more pessimistic polls would indicate that the electorate might inflict a far heavier penalty.
Fine Gael, standing at about 28 per cent in the polls, will therefore need to make good the Labour losses if the Rainbow Coalition is to win a workable Dail majority of 84 seats.
Since most of the Labour gains were in Dublin, the party is set to suffer the most serious losses among its 12 outgoing TDs in the capital. Only three of them are considered safe; Ruairi Quinn, Sean Ryan and Eamon Walsh.
Among the constituencies most in focus is Dublin Central, the home ground of the Fianna Fail leader Berie Ahern, who is attempting to take a second scat with Senator Marian Magennis.
Should he succeed, Joe Costello, one of Labour's hardest-working TDs, will be under threat. The danger also applies to the former justice minister, Jim Mitchell of Fine Gael.
One of the constituencies which seems certain to serve up an injury is Dublin North East, where Tommy Broughan is most likely to lose while his running mate, Sean Kenny, remains. Labour took over 30 per cent of the vote on the last occasion, with Kenny topping the poll.
In volatile Dublin South, Eithne Fitzgerald could go as quickly as she arrived. She polled an amazing 17,256 first-preference votes in 1992 but predictions now suggest that she is under severe pressure to hold her seat.
Dublin West could see Joan Burton take a tumble. She was also elected on the first count, with 22 per cent of the vote. But with independent Joe Higgins tipped to make a breakthrough, she is deemed vulnerable.
In South Central, Labour's tough fighter, Pat Upton, will need all his renowned resilience to withstand the challenge from Fianna Fail, and from Democratic Left's Eric Byrne.
The count in Dublin North West will be the most nerve-wracking in the city for both Labour and Democratic Left, with Roisin Short all and the Democratic Left leader, Proinsias de Rossa, both expected to be struggling for the last seat.
Most of the party's rural TDs feel more secure. The party predicts a gain in Kildare South with Jack Wall, and a surprising retention in North Tipperary, where Kathleen O'Meara appears set to take the seat previously held by John Ryan.
However, depending on the level of support throughout the State for Labour, some of their non-Dublin deputies could come under pressure. Those most at risk are: Brian Fitzgerald, Meath; Pat Gallagher, Laois-Offaly; and Willie Penrose, Westmeath.
Also, in recent days there have been indications that the high-profile Minister, Michael D. Higgins, could have to wait long hours before securing his return to the 28th Dail.