Labour's chances of winning a referendum on entry to the single currency are as much about timing as the popularity of the party and its leadership.
As William Hague is accused of focusing too much on the euro at the expense of challenging Labour over public services, yesterday's Gallup poll for the Daily Telegraph has shown opposition to the single currency is widespread, but not deep. Voting intentions on the euro are broadly based on party allegiance, but the poll flags up the possibility that millions of voters could be persuaded to change their minds about the euro.
Voter satisfaction with Labour could ensure Britain joins the euro, but any sign of a drift away from Labour in a second term could point to a tougher fight to guarantee a Yes vote. When they were asked how they would vote in a referendum during the next few months, 64 per cent of respondents said they would oppose the euro, against 28 per cent in favour.
However, when voters were asked to factor in a government recommendation (which Labour says it will do if the economic test is met) to join the single currency in two or three years' time, the No vote went down 12 per cent to 52 per cent, while the Yes vote went up nine per cent to 37 per cent.
Another sign of "potential fluidity" among voters was that 57 per cent of respondents had a "benign" view of euro membership at some time in the future. Although 40 per cent were opposed, Mr Anthony King of the Daily Telegraph, analysing the poll results, said the Conservatives were not in a position to claim their focus on the euro would translate into a No vote. This is because Labour is more popular than the Tories on Europe generally, partly because it is more popular than the Tories nationally.
If many British voters take their line on the single currency from the party they support, it appears they also sense a certain inevitability about joining the euro. So one of the factors working in Labour's favour at the moment is that according to the Gallup poll 68 per cent believe British membership of the euro is inevitable.