Labour TD Breeda Moynihan-Cronin's decision to stand in Kerry South will set nerves jittering, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Correspondent
Labour leader Pat Rabbitte's weekend statement welcoming Kerry South Labour TD Breeda Moynihan-Cronin back into the electoral fray was tinged with considerable relief.
Her decision to retire from politics, announced in October of last year, meant that, bar a miracle, Labour would have lost the seat. Changing her mind means that the party now has a very strong chance of holding on in the hard-fought three-seater.
Ms Moynihan-Cronin had decided to retire on the grounds of ill-health. "In recent times, I am pleased to report, I have returned to full health and I am happy to say that I am fit and well," she said on Saturday.
Her constituency colleagues are FF Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism, John O'Donoghue, and Independent TD Jackie Healy-Rae.
Fine Gael seemed set to be the party with most to gain when Ms Moynihan-Cronin decided to stand down. With no obvious successor to the long-running Moynihan dynasty, apart from Independent councillor Michael Gleeson, who appeared to have no interest in returning to his old party, the way was clear for a Fine Gael resurgence.
Fine Gael chose two county councillors, Dingle-based Séamus "Cosai" Fitzgerald and Rathmore-based Tom Sheahan. Fine Gael became firm favourites to win back a seat in its one-time stronghold, with Mr O'Donoghue, a safe bet, and a battle royal between Mr Healy-Rae and FF councillor Tom Fleming for the third seat.
However, with Ms Moynihan-Cronin running again, it is far from certain that Fine Gael will win a seat. She attracts votes well outside her Killarney base, given that the Moynihan dynasty stretches back to the 1950s when her father, Michael Moynihan, started contesting general elections. He eventually won a seat in 1981 and went on to serve as a minister of state. Last time, she outpolled both Fine Gael candidates on the first count, secured more than two-thirds of the FG transfers, and took the second seat.
The scale of the Fine Gael challenge this time should not be underestimated, but the Moynihan dynasty has shown formidable survival skills in the past.
Ms Moynihan-Cronin's Killarney base is a formidable electoral advantage. But Caherciveen-based Mr O'Donoghue, who topped the poll with 9,445 votes the last time, and has poured vast departmental funds into the constituency, pays considerable attention to Killarney, as does Mr Healy-Rae.
Meanwhile, a candidate to watch will be Mr Fleming, who polled 6,912 first preferences the last time and came within 203 votes of ousting Mr Healy-Rae for the third seat. Mr Healy-Rae is a gritty survivor, with two sons, Michael and Danny, members of Kerry County Council, a strong support base for any TD. He will pull out all the stops to resist Fianna Fáil's quest for two seats.
Given that political cocktail, the only certainty seems Mr O'Donoghue, with a battle for the remaining two seats between Labour and Fine Gael, on the one hand, and Mr Fleming and Mr Healy-Rae on the other.