The beleaguered Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, expects his Ministers to deliver a decisive Yes vote in their constituencies, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter.
The result from Laois-Offaly will be an interesting barometer of the national outcome when the votes in the Nice referendum are counted.
Last time the Fianna Fáil-dominated constituency voted No by a margin of 2.74 per cent. Turnout was low at just over 32 per cent. This time, two Ministers have been charged by the Government with delivering a Yes vote there.
If the constituency of the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, the Fianna Fáil director of elections, and the PD Minister of State for Finance, Mr Tom Parlon, fails to deliver for the Government, then it could be facing another embarrassing defeat.
Politically, there is much at stake for Mr Ahern in the referendum. A No victory would further damage the beleaguered Taoiseach in the wake of the slowdown in the economy and the fallout from the Flood report. He has instructed his Ministers and Ministers of State to clear their diaries and campaign for a Yes vote. He will be less than pleased with those whose constituencies fail to deliver.
While the Taoiseach can count on Ministers to pull out all the stops, disgruntled backbenchers, angry at being passed over for ministerial promotion, are less reliable. Privately, politicians agree that there is little door-to-door canvassing.
In constituencies outside Dublin, the campaign is largely being fought on local radio. Senior Ministers, including Mr Cowen, are being made available to local stations.
The Laois-Offaly situation is mirrored in other constituencies where the entire political establishment is supporting the Yes side. Yet it was not good enough in June of last year, when Dublin South and Dun Laoghaire were the only constituencies in the State to register a Yes vote.
Deputies are reluctant to predict the outcome, given that the memory of the surprising rejection of the treaty over a year ago is still fresh. However, the wily Fianna Fáil TD for Cork East, Mr Ned O'Keeffe, has no doubt about a Yes victory this time. "The mood has changed among voters across the board," he said. "It will be carried by three to one."
Mr Ahern and Mr Cowen both conceded, during the Dáil debate paving the way for the referendum, that not enough effort was put into the last campaign.
Mr John Cregan, Fianna Fáil TD for Limerick West, agrees, pointing out that the No lobby had a majority of 1.38 per cent in his constituency. This happened despite the fact that Limerick West has no elected representatives from Sinn Féin and the Green Party who oppose the Nice Treaty.
"The Yes campaign this time is much stronger, and nothing is being left to chance," he added.
Mr Ahern now has some heavy ministerial hitters in constituencies where the margin of defeat was narrow. Waterford rejected the treaty by just 3.54 per cent, and Mr Martin Cullen, elevated to full Cabinet rank as Minister for the Environment and Local Government, will be expected to turn that into a comprehensive victory for the Yes side.
The task is more formidable elsewhere. In the two Donegal constituencies, the margin of rejection was over 20 per cent. But they are now well served, in ministerial terms, with the Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Ms Coughlan, and two junior Ministers, Dr Jim McDaid and Mr Pat "The Cope" Gallagher.
The Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, Mr O Cuiv, has been elevated to full Cabinet rank and will be expected to reverse the No majority of 16.01 per cent in his Galway West constituency.