CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Cork North-West: This will be a big test for Fine Gael which lost one of two seats to Fianna Fáil last time out, writes Dick Hogan, Southern Correspondent
Party stalwarts in this marginal three-seater are predicting the battle in Cork North West will go down to the wire, with no more than a few hundred votes separating the candidates for the last seat.
"I wouldn't be surprised if Donal Moynihan (FF) and Gerard Murphy for us were locked together as the final votes were being counted," one senior Fine Gael figure in the constituency said.
"This is probably one of the tightest seats in the country in the end. Although I can't be seen to be saying it out loud, it will come down to how Fianna Fáil manages its vote and where the Labour transfers will go."
Fine Gael's Michael Creed was elected to the Dáil in 1989 at his first attempt. He commands huge loyalty in the constituency, which is a geographical nightmare for the candidates. It stretches from just 10 miles north of Bantry at one end, to the Limerick border at the other.
A son of Donal Creed, who was a towering Fine Gael presence in the old Mid Cork constituency, Creed is regarded locally as one of the rising stars in the party. His seat is assured. Whether Fine Gael can take a second is another matter.
From local soundings, the likelihood is that Fianna Fáil's Michael Moynihan will top the poll.
He broke the Fine Gael stranglehold by winning a second seat for the party at the last election. Prior to that, in the previous six elections, Fine Gael had taken two of the three seats. With two seats accounted for, this would leave Donal Moynihan of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael's Gerard Murphy fighting it out for the last seat.
Labour's Martin Coughlan is contesting his first general election. He is Macroom-based and would look to the south of the constituency for his natural support. Where will the transfers go on his expected elimination?
Southwards seems to be the answer, favouring Creed more than running mate Murphy towards the north, or Fianna Fáil.
In this constituency, Fine Gael of old showed what vote-management was all about. This will be the party's biggest test. Just how big can be measured by the activity on the ground.
There seldom has been two more motivated election teams than the two now working the towns and villages of this sprawling constituency for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Every vote, every first and second preference is being hard fought and both sides believe the 18-25-year-olds could tip the balance.
Not since the old Mid Cork days has Labour held a seat here, and unless there is a major upset, this election is not likely to restore the party's fortunes. The Christian Solidarity Party has Gerry Duffy in the field, but in the final analysis, he won't figure.
Health is the dominant issue in Cork North West, followed by the cost of car insurance for young people, crime and the state of the roads. If Fianna Fáil, which managed a careful division of the constituency before to bring in two candidates, can do so again, Donal Moynihan might just shade it from Gerard Murphy.
"We're talking about the toss of a coin, that's how close it's going to be," the knowing one said. "We might even be looking at a recount."
Prediction: FF 2; FG 1. No change.