WARSAW – Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the twin brother of Poland’s late president, declared his candidacy yesterday for a presidential election, but political analysts said the combative nationalist was unlikely to win.
Poles are due to elect a new president on June 20th following the death of Lech Kaczynski, along with 95 other people, mostly senior Polish officials, in a plane crash in Russia on April 10th.
Despite an increase of sympathy for the Kaczynski family, opinion polls show acting president Bronislaw Komorowski of the centrist Civic Platform as the most likely election winner.
A snap opinion poll conducted after Mr Kaczysnki’s announcement yesterday showed him winning 32 per cent against 46 per cent for Mr Komorowski. Such an outcome would force a second, decisive round of the election on July 4th.
Lech Kaczynski, elected president in 2005, had been expected to lose the election to Mr Komorowski.
“In reality, it won’t be him [Jaroslaw Kaczynski] running, it will be his brother.
“His campaign team will play on sympathy for his brother,” said Krzysztof Bobinski, head of the Unia Polska Foundation, a Warsaw think tank.
“Kaczynski would have a chance to win only if other candidates make mistakes.
“This is a difficult situation for everybody. This is not a normal election campaign but I think political attitudes generally have not changed among voters.”
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a former prime minister who also heads Poland’s main opposition party, the right-wing, eurosceptic Law and Justice (PiS), said he wanted to continue his brother’s conservative mission.
“Poland is our great shared obligation.
“We are required to overcome our personal pain and to take on this mission despite the personal tragedy. That’s why I have taken the decision to run for the presidency of Poland,” he said in a statement.
Lech Kaczynski and his wife, Maria, were buried in a state funeral in Krakow on April 18th. Mr Komorowski took over as acting president in his capacity as speaker of parliament, the second highest position in Poland’s state hierarchy.
The decision to run will have been difficult for Mr Kaczynski both personally and politically. Many Poles regard him as a divisive figure whose spell as premier in 2006-2007 put a strain on Poland’s EU relations.
Polish media also say he has yet to tell his ailing 83-year-old mother of Lech’s death.
The election outcome matters for Poland, the EU’s largest ex-communist member. The president can veto laws and also has a say in foreign and security policy. – (Reuters)