Support for National Front leader represents massive jump since last comparable poll, writes RUADHÁN Mac CORMAIC
THE FAR-RIGHT National Front has sharpened its anti-European rhetoric after an opinion poll showed its leader, Marine Le Pen, was in first place among young voters just two weeks before voting begins in France’s presidential election.
A series of poor polls for Ms Le Pen, caused in part by President Nicolas Sarkozy’s embrace of National Front themes and the rise of the left-wing radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon, had put her position in third place under threat.
However, the party has been buoyed in recent days by polls that show Ms Le Pen is consolidating her hold on third place and performing very strongly among younger voters.
Yesterday’s tracking poll by Ifop showed Mr Sarkozy in the lead in the first round, with 28 per cent (no change) compared to François Hollande of the Socialist Party on 27.5 per cent (up 0.5 per cent). Ms Le Pen was in third place on 16.5 per cent, ahead of Mr Mélenchon on 14 per cent.
A separate poll, by CSA for Le Monde, caused a stir by showing Ms Le Pen in the lead among voters aged 18-24, with 26 per cent support – ahead of Mr Hollande on 25 per cent and Mr Sarkozy on 17 per cent.
At a briefing for journalists at the National Front’s headquarters in the Paris suburb of Nanterre yesterday, Ms Le Pen described herself as the “anti-system” candidate and said the CSA poll showed young people saw her as an “honest, frank” antidote to “the cynicism of politicians”. “Being the candidate of young people is a great sign of hope for the future… I am the candidate of tomorrow,” she said.
Accusing other candidates of ignoring the economic crisis, Ms Le Pen said the euro was in a “death spiral” and said an orderly wind-down of the single currency was needed. “We have had the euro for 10 years – it’s no more than a parenthesis that must quickly be closed,” she said.
Ms Le Pen argued that Spain’s economic crisis and rising borrowing rates showed the folly of “the ultra-liberal model” that insisted on imposing “austerity after austerity”.
If elected president, she would halt France’s €7 billion annual contribution to the EU budget and bring an end to rescue packages for stricken members of the currency area.
Ms Le Pen said events in Spain had vindicated her position. “The euro crisis is raging. Spain is the new victim, and we can’t rescue Spain,” she said.
“The crisis is ahead of us, not behind us. The French people sense it.”
On immigration, Ms Le Pen pledged to cut the number of new arrivals each year from 200,000 to 10,000, saying France had to look after its own at a time of high unemployment and homelessness.
Her policy of “economic partriotism” distinguished her from all other candidates, who were all “globalist” and “believe France is an outdated concept”. “The real division is not between left and right but between those who believe in France and those who don’t,” Ms Le Pen said.
Assessing the level of support for the National Front leader is one of the most difficult challenges facing pollsters. Since taking over from her father, Jean-Marie, last year, Ms Le Pen has tried to overhaul the party’s image by toning down its xenophobic rhetoric and focusing more on economic policies drawn from the left.
As this is her first presidential election, polling companies do not know whether a long-time feature of the front’s support – that many of its voters tend not to admit their allegiance to pollsters – will be as strong this year.
Nonetheless, Ms Le Pen’s strong support among young people represents a considerable jump since the last comparable poll in December. Over the two polls, she rose by 13 per cent, while Mr Mélenchon’s support among the 18-14 year-old cohort increased from 5 per cent to 16 per cent.
The National Front has often done well among young people – an exit poll after the 2002 election showed Jean-Marie Le Pen performed had more support from 18-24 year-olds than either Jacques Chirac or Lionel Jospin – but the new poll has unsettled the two biggest parties.
Mr Hollande, who has made youth one of the major themes of his campaign, saw his support among this group fall from 39 to 25 per cent in three months.
Despite that poor trend, Mr Hollande’s lead over Mr Sarkozy in a run-off remains solid.
In yesterday’s Ifop poll, he led the incumbent by 54 per cent (+0.5) to 46 per cent – a margin reflected, with only minor shifts, in recent polls by six different companies.