Sinn Féin meeting/analysis:The ardfheis on policing will be no cakewalk for Adams or McGuinness, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
Potentially momentous work on policing was done for sure at the Great Southern Hotel at Dublin airport yesterday. We have a prospective Sinn Féin ardfheis but the politicians aren't there yet. The engine is running but this deal has yet to fly.
It's down to Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley to get the St Andrews Agreement airborne, but to achieve that they must first deal with some tricky passengers. That involves skilful leadership and nerve.
Jim Allister, for instance, the DUP member of the European Parliament, is one of those determined to hijack the chances of a deal by March. Allister was quick to appear on BBC Radio Ulster's Talkback programme yesterday, insisting a deal was "not possible" by the St Andrews March 26th deadline for a return to full devolution.
Sinn Féin's commitment to policing could not be tested between now and March 26th, he said. Sinn Féin must encourage republicans to join the PSNI and as the next intake of recruits was not till March, how, therefore, could there be devolution in March? And the IRA army council must go. And not only must republicans hand over the killers of Robert McCartney but the legal process leading to the convictions of McCartney's killers must be concluded before there could be a prospect of devolution.
Most reasonable people would want McCartney's killers put away but were the DUP to follow Allister's overall list of demands and long-fingered timetable for sharing power with Sinn Féin, then devolution would appear only a possibility in the very distant future. His remarks raised the question: does his rump of the party ever want to share power?
And then there was Martin Cunningham, a former Sinn Féin councillor who resigned from the party in South Down after he was deselected in the last Assembly elections.
On the same programme he was asked - as Sinn Féin leaders such as Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness have said in recent days - if it was the "right thing to do" to move now on policing. "It is the right thing to do if MI5 are controlling you," said Cunningham.
Now for a republican, that's a pretty raw comment to make. Cunningham obviously has history with the leadership but such a bitter and incendiary remark was an indicator of just how deep this issue runs. Add to that the attempt by dissident republicans to sow as much internal republican discord as they possibly can, and the uneasiness over policing among many loyal Sinn Féin supporters, and it is evident that this is no cakewalk for Adams and McGuinness.
So, to see this through, the DUP and Sinn Féin leaderships must avoid outright rebellion. They must manage their bases, and right now it would appear easier for Adams to handle challenges from the likes of Cunningham than it is for Paisley to manage a senior figure such as Allister - not to mention some of the so-called Twelve Apostles, such as MPs Nigel Dodds and the Rev William McCrea.
Part of the problem with yesterday's ardchomhairle is that Sinn Féin would not tell us the wording of the motion that will go before the January ardfheis, at least not until party members are first informed.
Moreover, there will be no ardfheis without DUP reciprocation.
Yet, what Adams said last night about supporting the police appeared positive and unambiguous.
Paisley jnr said yesterday that what was vital was "quality delivery" from Sinn Féin on policing. He attempted to waltz around Allister's statement that a deal was not possible by March 26th but eventually said, "I am not ruling anything in; I am not ruling anything out." That's shorthand for saying this could still work.
Paisley has a strong argument in his armoury to counter his internal opponents: if unionists reject a deal, with Sinn Féin actually prepared to endorse the Police Service of Northern Ireland, then what unionists will get will be Plan B, a stronger role for Dublin in the affairs of Northern Ireland.
The logic is with Paisley but passions often overrule logic. Still, Paisley has never been short of nerve, and neither has Adams, so this deal could yet get off the runway.