More than 90 per cent of those who secure over 500 points in the Leaving Cert will go on to gain a high honours degree at third level, according to a new report.
The report also finds that 30 per cent of those who secured 350 or fewer will proceed to gain high honours at third level.
The ground-breaking research conducted by Dr Garret Fitz-Gerald for the National University of Ireland (NUI) shows a clear link between Leaving Cert results and subsequent performance at third level.
The research contradicts the view among many education specialists that the Leaving Certificate is a poor preparation for third level.
Some see the exam's stress on rote-learning as old-fashioned but the new research shows a clear link between performance in the exam and subsequent performance at third level.
The research is based on data provided by UCD, NUI Galway, NUI Maynooth and University College Cork for 2003.
Dr FitzGerald, who is chancellor of the NUI, tracked the performance of students in college, based on their Leaving Cert results.
Only about 7 per cent or close to 4,000 Leaving Cert students secured 500 points in the exam. Broadly, about 40 per cent of students taking a university degree secure high honours.
The new research is likely to support the cautious approach of Minister for Education Mary Hanafin to the exam.
Her main advisory body, the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment, favours a radical review with a new three-year rolling exam offering wider subject choice and more continuous assessment and project work.
The Minister, however, is confining her reform plan to what she sees as more practical measures, such as her plan for a two-stage Leaving Cert from next year, where some part of the exam would be taken early in the school year.
The new NUI research shows that the third-level colleges do succeed in raising the academic performance of many students who enter college on less than 350 points.
Ms Hanafin says she does not want to tinker unduly with the Leaving Cert which, she believes, is regarded highly by parents and employers, as well as internationally.
Last year research compiled by academics at Oxford found that the standard of the Leaving Cert compared very favourably to the British A-level exam.
Figures also suggest a close link between failure rates at third level and CAO points levels. Recent UCD figures showed that only 2 per cent of first-year students failed high-points courses like law and medicine.
By contrast, areas which have seen a drop in points, such as science and arts, have a relatively high failure or dropout rate among first years.
In some courses, up to one in four students either failed or dropped out.