FRANCE: France's next president could be 'a sweet-faced, hard-headed fighter', writes Lara Marlowe in Paris. What if France's next president turned out to be Madame la présidente? The only novelty in French politics at the end of 2005 is le phénomène Ségolène; the sudden emergence of Ségolène Royal, a pretty, untypical mother of four, as the most popular politician on the French left.
A three-time cabinet minister, Royal (52) has served as a deputy for the Deux-Sèvres department since 1988. In 2004 she avenged the socialist party's 2002 election defeats by winning the presidency of the Poitou-
Charentes region, formerly the fiefdom of then prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin.
Royal has been the companion of the Socialist Party leader François Hollande since they met at the École Nationale d'Administration 25 years ago. (They graduated in the same class with prime minister Dominique de Villepin, another presidential hopeful.)
Sometimes compared to Bill and Hillary Clinton, the Hollande-Royals combine modernity and tradition. They never married, but have raised four children, Thomas, Clémence, Julien and Flora.
Royal's relationship with Hollande may compensate for the lack of a network within the party.
Except for her intense loyalty to her original mentor François Mitterrand, Royal has never joined a faction and shuns backroom scheming.
Her aura of independence pleases the public; if "Ségolène" is declared the socialist candidate in November 2006, it will be because her personal popularity overwhelmed the party apparatus.
There are at least seven other potential socialist candidates. According to a poll published on December 18th, Royal is followed in popularity by Lionel Jospin, Jack Lang, Dominique Strauss-
Kahn, François Hollande (her partner) and Laurent Fabius.
Despite their proclaimed policy of promoting male-female parity, when Royal's possible candidacy became a subject of gossip in the autumn, the socialist "elephants" had conniption fits.
"The presidential election is not a beauty contest" and "Who would look after the children?" were oft-quoted comments. As Royal continued to rise in the polls, some of her detractors sent emissaries begging forgiveness.
The fits turned to apoplexy this month when Royal forged ahead of all other socialist contenders. A poll published by Le Figaro magazine on December 17th asked: "Who would you vote for in 2007?"
Royal came in second, after the right-wing UMP leader Nicolas Sarkozy, but ahead of Villepin and all her socialist rivals. Fifty per cent of voters said they would like to see Royal and Sarkozy as candidates; 69 per cent of socialist supporters said they want to see her name on the ballot.
These are early days, and Royal's enemies are quick to point out that other socialists including Jacques Delors, Michel Rocard and Bernard Kouchner enjoyed high popularity ratings but never made it to the Élysée.
Nonetheless, a "Ségo-Sarko" run-off in 2007 would be an antidote to the dreary sameness of French politics. "I've always said that Ségolène Royal is the most interesting personality in the socialist party," Sarkozy says.
"I feel ready," Royal told Le Nouvel Observateur magazine. "I won't get involved in petty plotting. If the élan continues, which I believe it will, if left-wing voters ask for me, which I hope, then I'll be the natural candidate. The others won't have a chance. It'll be me!
"If that's not the case, well, I'll become self-effacing without feeling I've wasted my life."
Asked by the women's magazine Elle how she reconciles a successful political career with a happy family life, Royal said: "It's simple. When I see my four children, I tell myself I'm lucky, that we've done a good job.
"They're big now, so I've never felt so free." Had any of her children encountered severe problems, Royal says, she would have dropped out of politics.
Royal's ambition - and a bossy streak - are well known. Le Nouvel Observateur calls her "a sweet-faced, hard-headed fighter". In 1995 Hollande helped dissuade her from challenging Lionel Jospin for the presidential candidacy. Two years later she competed with Laurent Fabius for the job of speaker of the National Assembly and lost.
Today jealous critics point to her lack of experience in economics and foreign affairs.
But by relegating her to the "lesser" ministries of the environment, school programmes and family matters, male politicians may have done Royal a favour.
She has wide support in the Green party. The causes she has espoused - for the "day after" pill in French lycées and paternity leave, against bullying in schools and violence and pornography on television - are issues that interest the public.
It has escaped no one's notice that the Hollande-Royal couple are now rivals for the presidential nomination, despite their alliance of a quarter-
century. "It won't be possible unless François asks me and supports me," Royal told Paris-Match.
In the meantime, she is determined not to lose momentum. Her political association, Désir d'Avenir, was launched this month. A Royal internet site will open next month, and she'll publish a book in March.