London and Dublin are heavily discounting the prospect of legislative sanctions against Sinn Féin ministers while anti-agreement unionists now predict a September showdown with Mr David Trimble.
September is fast assuming significance in calculations about the political process in Northern Ireland as it marks the beginning of the Ulster Unionist Party's selection of candidates for next year's Assembly elections.
The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, now believes that a continued collapse in unionist confidence in the Belfast Agreement could implode, with potentially disastrous consequences for the agreement - either in the form of a leadership coup against Mr Trimble in the autumn or in a Democratic Unionist defeat of the UUP in next May's election.
In a serious effort to avert either possibility, and to restore confidence, Mr Blair is believed to be preparing a significant statement detailing the British government's expectations of republican and loyalist ceasefires. At the end of Thursday's Hillsborough summit Mr Blair signalled the urgent need to reassure people that paramilitarism was coming to an end and that paramilitary organisations intended to complete the transition from terror to democracy. His statement is expected before the Commons rises for the summer on July 24th.
However, there was no official encouragement yesterday for the apparent expectation in some unionist circles that Mr Blair's statement would take the form of legislation, complete with a new exclusion mechanism to be applied against political parties representing paramilitaries subsequently deemed in breach of their ceasefire.
Irish sources confirmed they had "no expectation of legislation" and that the Government remained opposed to any change in the rules requiring a cross-community vote in the Assembly to exclude any party from ministerial office.
British sources similarly discouraged journalistic inquiries about possible new sanctions, stressing Mr Blair's "emphasis on the positive" and his commitment to a "step by step" attempt to persuade all sides of the likely consequences for the agreement if confidence were not restored, and "to keep everybody inside the boat".
The sources refused to speculate on suggestions that Mr Blair might call for greater transparency in IRA decommissioning and for the pro-agreement parties to "re-commit" to exclusively peaceful and democratic means.
Asked whether words alone would ease the pressures on Mr Trimble, one insider emphasised London's commitment to persuasion rather than confrontation: "If we lose Trimble, then the game might be up. But if we get to the point of excluding people, then it's up anyway, and all that's left is a blame game."
Leading anti-agreement unionists predicted "no change" as a result of Thursday's summit and Mr Blair's promised response to unionist concerns.
"We'll get warm words but I don't believe we'll get an effective exclusion mechanism," said one dissident, adding: "We'll mull it over, take our holidays, then have a showdown in September. If he [Mr Trimble] doesn't withdraw [from the Executive] he's finished."
With some of his closest supporters similarly urging him to "take control of events", Mr Trimble yesterday gave no clue as to his likely tactics.
The First Minister and UUP leader welcomed Mr Blair's acknowledgement that republicans must make a "full transition from violence to democracy."
He also welcomed "the Prime Minister's belief that the process must have 'clear principles to abide by' and his recognition that action must be taken 'if people don't abide by them'."