FF's Senator Michael Finneran, bridesmaid twice, is expected to top thepoll, writes Kathy Sheridan
It's a funny old game. Just five years ago, Albert Reynolds had topped the poll, had the presidency in his sights and was luxuriating in the notion of becoming special envoy to the North.
Since then he has had the rug pulled from under him by his party leader, seen his dreams turn to ashes and his offspring recoil from a tilt at his Longford crown.
"You make your bed and you lie on it. That's my advice after 20 years," said Mr Seán Doherty to the newly-elected 23-year-old, Mr Denis Naughten, after the sweaty, 30-hour marathon in 1997.
Now after 25 years, both Mr Doherty and Mr Reynolds have left the fray and all sides agree their absence has drained much of the colour from Longford-Roscommon politics.
How it will affect the outcome of this election is another matter.
Since the shotgun wedding of these two counties in 1992, they have remained stubbornly divided. In 1997, Roscommon got all of 1,188 votes from Longford; Longford prised 911 from Roscommon. Yet between them, they produced the highest turnout nationally, at 74.82 per cent. The number of candidates this time round has risen from 11 to 15.
In Longford, the former Taoiseach may have topped the poll but he also saw his first preferences drop from over 10,000 to 8,742. The bulk of the missing 1,500 went to the PDs' energetic Ms Mae Sexton, who is capable of inflicting damage on all-comers, especially Mr Reynolds's proposed successor, undertaker and seasoned campaigner Mr Peter Kelly, as well as on sitting Fine Gael TD Mr Louis Belton.
She has a mountain to climb to double her 2,289 first preferences but her 1997 haul was considered impressive in the context of a poor PD showing nationally. This time, with a little help from her party leader, she is being identified with the long-anticipated arrival of Longford town's great white hope, Cardinal Healthcare, and its 1,300 jobs, no small boon in a county of just 30,000 people. Then again, almost everyone else is claiming they had a hand in it.
In Roscommon, another woman, Hospital Action Committee candidate Ms Una Quinn, is also expected to make a strong showing, enough to make a dent in all the mainstream candidates' votes, including the front-runners, sitting Fine Gael TD Mr Denis Naughten, and Fianna Fáil's Senator Michael Finneran, who has been the bridesmaid twice before.
This time out, Mr Finneran - who lost out on the final seat in 1997, when Mr Naughten's transfers finally swept Mr Belton past the post - is confidently expected to top the poll, followed by Mr Naughten. Mr Doherty's replacement is North Roscommon's Dr Greg Kelly, a first-time candidate who may need a higher profile. But in the killing fields of Roscommon, they expect the unexpected. Local lore has it that no TD in this county has ever retired from politics undefeated and that at least one sitting TD has always lost a seat at election time.
Both counties feature sizeable pockets of embittered Fianna Fáilers, and much may depend on the order of eliminations and if, for example, Mr Finneran's transfers swim the Shannon to Mr Kelly.
As for Fine Gael, while Mr Naughten has undoubtedly shored up his support since winning his late father's seat, he will no longer have the sympathy vote. In fact, the real battle in Roscommon is likely to be the one between him and his constituency colleague, Mr John Connor, who lost his seat in 1997.
And if that isn't enough to maintain interest, there's always Luke "Ming" Flanagan, the cannabis legislation activist, back in his native Castlerea. He is into his second campaign and pleading for donations on the basis that he hasn't the benefit of church gate collections or "brown envelopes". Other candidates include 28-year-old former Fianna Fáiler, Mr Paul Whelan for Sinn Féin, Ms Catherine Ansbro for the Greens, Mr Hugh Baxter for Labour, and two Independents, Mr Vincent Killalea (on an equality- for-men platform) and Mr Tom Crosby (stop the Bertie Bowl).
Prediction : FF 2; FG 2; No change.
Tomorrow: Carlow-Kilkenny, Cork South-Central, Wicklow
1997: FF 47.02%; FG 36.91%; Lab 1.48%; PDs 4.84%; Others 9.75%.
Outgoing TDs: Albert Reynolds and Sean Doherty (FF); Denis Naughten and Louis Belton (FG).