TAOISEACH BRIAN Cowen commands top billing at today's EU summit, where he will present a "roadmap" on how to ratify the Lisbon Treaty - but the EU climate package may prove a much more contentious issue for Europe's leaders to grapple with.
Lisbon is the first item on the agenda of the two-day summit in Brussels and Mr Cowen is due to start proceedings by outlining the way forward shortly after 3pm. But EU diplomats have indicated they don't expect a long debate on the treaty, which has been pushed down the EU agenda by the climate talks and the deepening recession in Europe.
Irish officials, Mr Cowen and French officials, who are representing the presidency of the EU, have also toured Europe to smooth over the concerns of some EU leaders that Dublin is not moving fast enough to solve the union's Lisbon dilemma. And behind the scenes, at a diplomatic level, everything possible is being done to avoid a squabble over institutions that could make it harder for Mr Cowen to win a referendum.
Most EU diplomats expect the Taoiseach to outline the type of guarantees that he needs to try to reassure the Irish public and enable him to hold a second referendum. He will request a political commitment from his EU counterparts to accommodate Ireland on four main areas: the commission; ethical issues; tax and neutrality. In return, Mr Cowen will be expected to make a commitment to try to ratify Lisbon next year. Most EU and Irish diplomats believe October is the most likely date for a second referendum. But there is little chance that Mr Cowen will name any date before the legally binding guarantees can be drawn up and agreed next year, probably at next June's European Council.
Several EU states, notably the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and Spain, have expressed their concern at allowing every member state to retain their commissioner after 2014 in the run-up to the summit. And there is every possibility of some grumbling by states which feel that further enlargement could make the commission inefficient and, in the future, unworkable. But the strong support of European Commission president José Manuel Barroso on Tuesday will have strengthened Mr Cowen's position. After all, if anyone knows whether a large commission undermines efficiency it is surely Mr Barroso, who has managed an EU executive composed of 27 representatives.
Several smaller member states such as Slovakia are also strong supporters of retaining one commissioner per member while France, Germany and Britain will make the concession if it can deliver Lisbon.
Discussions on the climate change package are unlikely to prove anything like as consensual with Italy, Poland, Germany and several other central European states still trying to wrest concessions. This package contains the EU goals to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020, when compared to 2005 levels. It also seeks to set legally binding targets to boost energy efficiency by 20 per cent and the use of renewable energy in Europe to account for 20 per cent of overall energy.
The package is the cornerstone of the EU's ambitious strategy to combat global warming. A failure to agree the complex rules required to meet the targets - set last year - would seriously undermine Europe's global leadership.
Italy and Poland have both threatened vetos unless their concerns over the cost to their industry is addressed, although there have been signs of compromise in the lead-up to the summit.
Berlin and Rome want to exempt large portions of their heavy industries from having to pay for allowances to emit CO2 in return for their support for the package. They fear "carbon leakage" if they do not win concessions, whereby heavy industries simply move out of the EU to avoid the extra cost.
Poland, which relies heavily on coal-fired power stations, says that forcing power stations to pay for all their emissions could lead to a huge jump in electricity prices.
Most diplomats expect a deal because failure would represent a huge setback for the EU. But the complexity of the package and the fact that it will cost hundreds of billions of euro to implement could lead to a very long summit.
EU leaders will be asked to rubber stamp the commission's economic recovery plan, which aims to boost the EU economy by €200 billion. There are differences between EU leaders over the detail of the plan but as long as it remains optional it is likely to be agreed with some modifications.