Opinion Poll Analysis: Personalities drive the European campaign, but the parties will be looking to the local government results to gauge their future, reports Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
This poll reflects what canvassers have been reporting from the constituencies over the past fortnight: Fianna Fáil may lose over 50 local authority seats, and were there to be a general election soon, the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats Coalition would be well short of a Dáil majority.
Fine Gael, too, is set to lose more than two dozen seats, having performed particularly well in 1999. However, the party's national share of the vote has seen some move in the right direction, and losses may not be as bad as once feared.
In addition it has the welcome boost of being on target to win four European Parliament seats, with a very outside chance of securing a fifth.
With Fianna Fáil set to win four - and up to seven if every close contest falls its way - Fine Gael could end up with the same number of European seats as Fianna Fáil, giving it some welcome ammunition against claims that the party is in terminal decline.
Sinn Féin's march continues. It will make big local election gains and may win a European seat in Dublin. Labour will win extra local government seats as well, and probably two seats in the European Parliament. The Green Party will have to console itself over the loss of one or possibly both European seats by highlighting some local government wins.
The Government parties have a total of 38 per cent support compared to 43 per cent for the emerging alternative of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens. A question of great political interest will be whether the recent talk of an alternative government will bring better rates of vote transfers between those parties.
If it does, the leaders of the three parties will be further encouraged to come together before the next general election to try to win the 26 extra Dáil seats required to form an administration.
Fianna Fáil's 32 per cent national vote for the local elections compares unfavourably with the 39 per cent it achieved in city and county councils in 1999. If repeated, June 11th could see the party lose over 50 seats on these councils.
The poll isn't all bad for Fianna Fáil. On the question of who they would support in a general election voters have provided it with a modest boost to 35 per cent.
This is still a long way from the 41.5 per cent the party achieved in the 2002 general election and if repeated in an actual election could lose the party 10 Dáil seats. However, it marks an improvement from the 33 per cent achieved in the poll last February, and the historic low of 30 per cent in the poll before that.
However, the fact that this figure must be treated with some caution is underlined by the three-point falls in satisfaction with the Government and the performance of the Taoiseach, despite the apparent improvement for Fianna Fáil.
It is possible that in a poll where voters were choosing named candidates for the European Parliament elections, the presence of some popular Fianna Fáil individuals on the ballot paper influenced a number of voters to say they would also support the party in a general election.
Indeed Fianna Fáil's European candidates between them attract a national vote of 37 per cent, considerably higher than the party's standing if there were to be a general election.
Fine Gael's 24 per cent in the local elections poll represents a modest recovery from poor polls in recent months but is down from the 28 per cent received in 1999 and could lose it more than 30 seats.
In relation to general election voting intentions Fine Gael has recovered two points since the February poll to 23 per cent. In the local and general election polls it therefore scores higher than the 22.5 per cent it achieved in 2002.
Again, the strong party ticket in the European campaign may influence this. Fine Gael will receive a further major psychological boost from the showing that Gay Mitchell (Dublin), Simon Coveney (South), Avril Doyle (Leinster) and probably Jim Higgins (North West) are all set to win European Parliament seats.
The party's dream of seeing Mairead McGuinness taking an extraordinary second seat in three-seat East seems most unlikely, but not impossible on these figures.
Labour's 16 per cent for both the local elections and a general election shows the third successive modest decline from the 22 per cent it scored in May 2003 in the immediate aftermath of a high-profile party conference.
However, it is still well ahead of both its 1999 local election and 2002 general election results, in both of which it received just under 11 per cent. Proinsias De Rossa seems set to retain his Dublin European Parliament seat, with Peter Cassells well placed to win in East.
While Hugh Baxter in North West was never expected to challenge for a seat, the party will be very disappointed at the 5 per cent showing for Brendan Ryan in South. Ivana Bacik's support is currently short of what would be required to get ahead of either Patricia McKenna of the Greens or Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin to challenge for a second Labour seat in Dublin.
The Green Party's general and local election support is static at 3 per cent, below the almost 3.85 per cent received in the 2002 general election but above the 2.5 per cent in the 1999 locals. Modest local authority gains are possible, but the likely loss of the party's European Parliament seat in East and the threat to Patricia McKenna's Dublin seat will be very disappointing for it.
Sinn Féin's local and general election support has fallen back slightly to 10 per cent from the unprecedented 12 per cent in last February's poll. Coupled with the fall in Gerry Adams's approval rating by nine points, it seems possible that recent sustained attacks on the party for its links with the IRA, coupled with renewed controversy relating to the killers of Jerry McCabe may have had an effect.
However, the party gained just 3 per cent in 1999 and will make substantial local authority gains.
At 3 per cent the Progressive Democrats' national vote is hovering at its usual level. With no candidates for the European Parliament election, it is campaigns for individual candidates in target areas in the local government elections that will determine how well the party does.
Independents and others are showing at 9 per cent in the local government elections and 7 per cent if there were a general election.
However, national figures mean little for such people. Individuals such as Marian Harkin in North West and Kathy Sinnott in South are performing well.
The European election results will provide some surprise personality-driven results which will boost and depress party morale in equal numbers. However, those in Leinster House will be watching for national trends, which will be clearer from the local elections.
They will give clear indications as to whether the current Government can yet win a third term.