The British government discussed the possibility of "numerous civilian casualties" in a military operation in order to restore law and order to Derry just weeks before Bloody Sunday, it emerged yesterday.
The Saville inquiry was told that a Cabinet meeting on Northern Ireland on January 11th, 1972, chaired by the then prime minister, Sir Edward Heath, concluded:
"As to Londonderry, a military operation to reimpose law and order would require seven battalions and would probably involve the commitment for a long time of four battalions to the city.
"It would be a major operation, necessarily involving numerous civilian casualties and thereby hardening even further the attitude of the Roman Catholic population."
Sir Arthur Hockaday, who was then an adviser on Northern Ireland in the Cabinet Office, said it would be overstating matters to suggest that bloodshed was "anticipated" on Bloody Sunday.
The British government believed there was a need for a political initiative to help resolve the problem of Derry's no-go areas.
There was no plan for a large-scale military operation to retake those areas in early 1972, the inquiry, sitting in London, was told.
It was believed that the march would be largely peaceful, but the possibility of gunfire could not be ruled out, Sir Arthur told the hearing.
There was no significant discussion on using lethal force at the march at another Cabinet meeting on Northern Ireland on January 27th, Sir Arthur said.
It was "inevitable" the security forces would have to return fire if they came under attack.
He told the inquiry: "There was, of course, then always the danger, simply as a matter of practical fact, that an innocent bystander might be hit."
Mr Brian Faulkner, the former prime minister of Northern Ireland, believed that Bloody Sunday had led to a "hardening of opinion" and the "alienation" of the Catholic community, according to official records, the tribunal heard.
Notes from a meeting he had with Sir Edward Heath after the shootings record him as saying: "On the unionist side there was undoubtedly a new solidarity. In the longer term it might be the case that the terrible events in Londonderry would be seen to have cleared the air, once the initial hysteria had subsided."
At that meeting Sir Edward wondered whether Bloody Sunday could have helped towards a political settlement by "pulling people up short", the record notes.
He also suggested that Bloody Sunday might have blighted the chances of settlement, saying that "at the moment at least any political initiative had been made very much more difficult".
No details of what the settlement would have involved were mentioned.
Lord Gifford QC, representing the family of a Bloody Sunday victim, James Wray, suggested there had been a "trade" between the two leaders.
He asked Sir Arthur: "Was there some kind of trade, the British Prime Minister accepting and agreeing to approve a robust operation on Sunday in Derry and the Northern Ireland Prime Minister being expected to respond positively to the political initiative?"
Sir Arthur responded: "I have no recollection of any such deal and nor have I seen any evidence for it."
He told the hearing that he did not believe the deployment of 1 Para on Bloody Sunday reflected a change in government policy regarding the handling of the Derry situation.
A memo by Gen Sir Robert Ford, commander of the land forces in Northern Ireland, suggesting that the best way to help maintain law and order was to "shoot selected ringleaders" among the Bogside's stone-throwing rioters formed "no part of government policy", he added.
The hearing was adjourned until tomorrow. - (PA)