London sees opportunity to end arms logjam

Once more with feeling... Today Northern Ireland is directly ruled from London

Once more with feeling . . . Today Northern Ireland is directly ruled from London. Tomorrow it's virtually certain it will be back to devolution. But only for six weeks - during the coming 42 days the British and Irish governments will try to resolve the main outstanding issue of arms.

The Press Association in Belfast, citing "authoritative security sources", reported that the IRA is to decommission two of its dumps already viewed by the arms inspectors, Mr Cyril Ramaphosa and Mr Maarti Ahtisaari - this speculation on a possible IRA move on arms is in line with a report in The Irish Times earlier this week.

The PA report appeared to contradict the RUC chief constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, who earlier yesterday told the BBC he had no intelligence that an IRA gesture on weapons was "imminent". However, Sir Ronnie was careful to cover himself against any surprises. "But that does not mean it is not going to happen," he added.

One senior republican, when asked last night were there any whispers of the IRA doing what Dublin, London, Washington and all the pro-agreement parties - and even most republicans, according to The Irish Times/Primetime poll - are desperately urging them to do, said he was unaware of any immediate move on weapons.

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"But I wouldn't be surprised if it does happen," he added. "Whether it happens sooner or later it is something that will have to be done. It is not going to go away," he added.

The fallout from the arrests in Colombia and the shift in mood towards the IRA and Sinn Fein in Washington and among Irish-Americans were damaging to Sinn Fein, he said.

Spokesmen for the British and Irish governments expressed concern about the sources for the PA report. They were acting with a "mischievous" intent designed to damage the prospects of a move on arms, they suspected.

The republican source agreed that there was an obvious "delicacy" about the arms issue and reports or pressure emanating from unidentified security quarters could ultimately be designed to "push the IRA into the corner".

Nonetheless, the British and Irish governments believe that the coming six weeks present a real opportunity for the decommissioning issue to be finally resolved. They believe too, despite the hardball comments from Mr Adams and his colleagues, that republicans generally have real worries about being ostracised at home and abroad.

Mr Trimble is under pressure himself from the "no" wing of his party to withdraw his ministers from the Executive in protest at this latest temporary suspension. Dublin and London however are concerned that such action would take some of the pressure off the IRA and Sinn Fein. "There is pressure on Sinn Fein and the IRA from all sides, from the two governments, from the other parties in the North, from America, and for the UUP to pull out of the executive would be the height of foolishness. It would take the pressure off the IRA," said a senior Dublin source, echoing similar views in London.

"The politics of pressure, particularly the politics of pressure against the IRA, is highly counter-productive," said Mr Gerry Adams yesterday.

One senior London source, however, said there were still grounds for hope that the logjam could be ended. "In the last suspension people said it would be impossible to establish the policing board. Yet that has happened. Who is to say that the decommissioning issue can't be resolved in the next six weeks," he said.