Video may have killed the radio star, but Forrester Research this evening said Internet piracy was not to blame - as record labels have claimed - for the 15 per cent drop in music sales in the past two years.
"There is no denying that times are tough for the music business, but not because of downloading," said Josh Bernoff, principal analyst at research firm Forrester Research, who released a report on the digital music market.
Based on surveys of 1,000 US online consumers, Forrester said it sees no evidence of decreased CD buying among frequent digital music consumers and said the record labels could restore industry growth by making it easier for people to find, copy, and pay for music on their own terms.
Forrester predicts that by 2007, digital music revenues in the United States will reach more than $2 billion, or 17 percent of the music business, from about $3 million in 2001.
Forrester pointed to the economy and competition from other media for the music market's downturn, rather than the emergence of free song-swap services like now-idled Napster and several similar sites in its wake, which the recording industry has claimed in several copyright lawsuits have hurt sales.
"Plenty of other causes are viable, including the economic recession and competition from surging video game and DVD sales," Bernoff said. Forrester said record labels would learn to fulfill Internet consumer demands in the next few years, predicting that by 2005, labels will endorse a standard download contract that supports burning and a greater range of devices.
Downloading will start to soar in 2005 as finding content becomes effortless and impulse purchases easy. Labels will make content available on equal terms to all distributors, while online retailers will become hubs for downloading, Forrester said.