Loss of legendary leader will not mean collapse, sources say

There are "mixed feelings but no split" in the SDLP over the prospect of the party leader, Mr John Hume, as a presidential candidate…

There are "mixed feelings but no split" in the SDLP over the prospect of the party leader, Mr John Hume, as a presidential candidate, according to insiders. Perhaps it is the time of year, but the issue has not aroused strong feelings one way or the other.

The one issue that does arouse anger is the notion of the SDLP as a one-man party. Senior members take umbrage at the notion that the organisation would collapse without Mr Hume: unable to sustain its position in the Stormont talks and facing obliteration at the hands of the electorate.

They point out there is a perfectly capable deputy leader in Mr Seamus Mallon, chief negotiator in the talks and a distinguished political figure in his own right.

The general assumption is that if Mr Hume went to the Phoenix Park, Mr Mallon would take over the reins and see the party through the next Westminster election in 2002. This would give adequate time for a leader to be groomed for the new century, with Mr Mark Durkan of Derry the most obvious choice.

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"You never replace a legend," a long-time SDLP campaigner observed. "Seamus Mallon is a different man but equally brilliant."

Another party stalwart pointed out the party had to change leaders at some stage. He said there was a lesson to be drawn from the experience of Fine Gael after Dr Garret FitzGerald stepped down: it should have gone for Mr Peter Barry to take it through the transition instead of skipping a generation to Mr Alan Dukes.

Mr Seamus Mallon was the equivalent in the SDLP of Mr Barry.

But speculation about new leaders must remain in abeyance unless and until Mr Hume has actually gone. We are told there will be no definite word until he returns from his holidays early next month.

Last week, the smart money was suggesting he would indeed go for the Park. The Stormont talks were up and running, bar one or two glitches such as the unionists refusing to share a table with Sinn Fein.

But the peace process was bigger than any single individual and there was no reason a politician who personified all that was positive and progressive in modern Ireland should not take over as the nation's titular head.

The mood has now changed. The pre-emptive strike by Mr Albert Reynolds is in part responsible for this. The field is getting crowded with Mr Michael O'Kennedy, Ms Mary Banotti, Ms Avril Doyle and Dana, as well as strong speculation about a Fianna Fail endorsement of Ms Maire Geoghegan-Quinn.

It may be a case of "He who hesitates is lost". But it may also be a vindication of Mr Hume's decision to wait and see, to test the waters before making a definitive announcement.

Unseemly public squabbles, division, dissension and media muckspreading are the very opposite of the values Mr Hume has espoused throughout his career.

Senior Fianna Fail sources have indicated that, as far as they are concerned, if Mr Hume wants the job he can have it. The decision is his to make.

In the meantime, Mr Bertie Ahern can enjoy the spectacle of possible rivals and opponents squaring off against each other in the contest for the Big Job.

The implications for northern politics could have a more significant impact on Mr Hume's decision, party insiders say. Unlike the Republic, when members of the European Parliament step down in the North there has to be a by-election. This contest would take place within the lifetime of the current negotiations.

The Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Robert McCartney would have the opportunity to turn that byelection into a de facto referendum on the talks process. Victory, or even a strong showing by a candidate from that wing of unionism, would make the Ulster Unionists even more half-hearted about participating in the Stormont talks, according to SDLP sources.

Party insiders said Sinn Fein would also be likely to use a European by-election to strengthen its position, leading to an escalation in political rhetoric all round. Sinn Fein sources have indicated grave unhappiness at the prospect of Mr Hume departing the northern political scene at this time.

During 30 years in politics, he has achieved the remarkable distinction of being revered by both sides of the political mainstream in southern Irish politics. It is hard to see him ending his career on a discordant note.