Loyalist leaders try to hold ceasefire

THE leading loyalist politician wasn't making threats. He spoke very matter of factly

THE leading loyalist politician wasn't making threats. He spoke very matter of factly. "If the IRA keeps bombing England and there is no political progress here, I don't think our ceasefire can hold for more than another fortnight.

"If the IRA restarts its campaign here, then the show's over. There is no way that the loyalist ceasefire would hold for any length of time if republicans were shooting and bombing the heart out of Northern Ireland."

The loyalist paramilitaries, like other players in the peace process, were thrown into disarray by the ending of the IRA ceasefire. They had, of course, discussed their reaction to such a scenario, but the reality has proved to be very different.

It's one thing talking in theory about loyalists holding their nerve if the IRA campaign restarted, its another thing implementing that when such a development actually occurs," says another loyalist politician.

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The Combined Loyalist Military Command, the umbrella group which incorporates the UVF and the UDA, was believed to be planning to meet either last night or today to decide its response.

It had delayed meeting to allow for a cooling off period after the first IRA bombing.

Representatives of the Ulster Democratic Party and the Progressive Unionist Party, the political wings of the UDA and UVF respectively, are lobbying the CLMC to retain its ceasefire.

The UDP press officer, Mr Davy Adams, won't engage in speculation about what the CLMC is likely to do. "That might be interpreted as a threat and I don't want to sound like Sinn Fein," he said. "We need people to remain calm."

"So far, loyalist paramilitaries have acted with remarkable restraint and we want that to continue," said the UDP leader, Mr Gary McMichael. "But every time the IRA strikes, it makes it more difficult for us to keep the situation under control.

"We will do everything in our power to avert a breakdown of the loyalist ceasefire. We do not want loyalist paramilitaries to get drawn into a conflict of the IRA's making. The IRA must be isolated."

The PUP leader, Mr David Ervine, said he would be urging the CLMC to do nothing and to allow the security services deal with the IRA.

He believed two other options were under consideration. The CLMC could set a three to six month deadline for both governments to bring the IRA under control. If the deadline was not met, the loyalist campaign would restart.

Another option was dropping the word "universal" from the loyalist ceasefire declaration to permit a rolling resumption of violence.

There appears to be no immediate danger of the UDA bombing Dublin. It would be illogical," says one source. "The Irish government has taken a very strong anti IRA line. There is nothing we want from them."

The UVF, however, is taking a different line. It fears that the IRA could secure concessions by bombing Britain. UVF militants want to exert their own political leverage by launching the first full blooded offensive on the Republic since the Dublin and Monaghan bombings which killed 33 people in 1975.

The former Presbyterian minister who helped broker the loyalist ceasefire, the Rev Roy Magee, has said IRA bombs in London are just as serious as attacks in Belfast. Fellow British citizens are under attack and the loyalist paramilitaries see it as their duty to retaliate, he said.

Privately, however, loyalist sources have said that this is not the case. "Bombs in London aren't the same as bombs in Belfast," one admitted. "They don't get people's back up in the same way. Dead bodies on the Shankill would he a different matter."