When Billy Wright was moved last April into H Block 6, which was already occupied by INLA inmates, Mr Willie Gallagher, of the Irish Republican Socialist Party, warned the authorities to reconsider the decision or "be prepared to accept whatever chain of events, inside and outside Long Kesh, that they have set in motion".
Last Saturday INLA inmates carried out that threat, killing the leader of the dissident, anti-ceasefire Loyalist Volunteer Force as he left the block for a visit. A sense of foreboding descended across the North.
As the week progressed it became apparent that loyalist extremists were intent on a revenge massacre of Greysteel or Loughinisland proportions. Two attempts led to two killings. The Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, came under sustained attack from unionists and it seemed the North was destined to slip dangerously close to the "darkness" church leaders were warning about.
The LVF threatened further attacks and, more worryingly, appeared to be gaining the support of members of the larger, proceasefire loyalist groups, the UDA/UFF and the UVF. A car used in the New Year's Eve attack on a Catholic bar in north Belfast was found burned out in the Shankill, where the LVF has never gained a foothold. Mr Billy Hutchinson, of the Progressive Unionist Party, the political wing of the UVF, said "it looked like it may not be" the work of the LVF, an indication that he suspected UFF involvement.
The UFF had left wreaths at Wright's funeral and sympathy notices appeared in the Belfast Telegraph from people known to be associated with the UFF and the UVF. Mr John White, of the Ulster Democratic Party, the political wing of the UDA/UFF, had admitted earlier in the week that many loyalists had "great respect" for Wright.
An assurance yesterday by the UDP leader, Mr Gary McMichael, that the UFF was not involved in the New Year's Eve attack will have failed to convince many, and the outcome of an expected vote on the ceasefire among UDA/UFF prisoners after they return to the Maze this weekend from Christmas parole is awaited.
The killing of Wright was always going to have disastrous consequences. Known as "King Rat", various reports linked him with dozens of murders over 17 years, first in the infamous mid-Ulster branch of the UVF and later, after he was expelled from that organisation, as leader of the LVF.
When Wright was called for a regular Saturday morning visit with his girlfriend last week, three armed INLA inmates scrambled across the roof of their wing, jumped into the forecourt of H Block 6 and shot him five times at point-blank range as he sat in the back of a prison van.
Dr Mowlam tried to play down the embarrassment of a prisoner being shot dead inside what is supposed to be the highest-security jail in western Europe. Her task became more difficult after the LVF made its first "revenge" attack at the Glengannon Hotel in Dungannon last Saturday night.
The gunmen's plans to open fire on a crowded disco were thwarted by the actions of the doormen at the hotel. One of them, Seamus Dillon, a former republican prisoner who had served a life sentence, was killed. Two other doormen and a 14-year-old glass collector were seriously injured.
On Sunday Dr Mowlam was talking of "a testing time" but stressing the need to keep it in perspective. On Monday journalists were taken inside the Maze Prison for a press conference with the Northern security minister, Mr Adam Ingram, and senior prison officials. They were told that nobody would be resigning over the prison killing.
Journalists were treated to the sight of the minister's car being thoroughly searched as it drove into the jail but were more interested in a theory being put forward by the chairman of the Prison Officers' Association, Mr Finlay Spratt, that the guns used in the Wright killing were probably smuggled into the Maze in babies' nappies.
A series of parties for inmates' partners and children were held in the jail in the weeks before Christmas. It was during one of these that an IRA prisoner, Liam Averill, escaped dressed as a woman.
Mr Spratt gave the DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, fuel for further resignation demands by claiming that a prison officer had been removed from his post at a watchtower overlooking the scene of the shooting shortly before it happened. He was assigned to accompany prisoners on visits.
Mr Ingram said the remit of an inquiry into Averill's escape would be extended to take in the killing of Wright. Regular block searches would begin and the chief inspector of prisons for England and Wales, Gen Sir David Ramsbotham, would carry out a full inspection of the prison. All of these measures were duly pronounced inadequate by the Ulster Unionist Party leader, Mr David Trimble, who demanded a completely independent inquiry.
Journalists asking impertinent questions about prisoners running the jail were reminded by Mr Ingram that it was a "unique" place with more than 500 "dedicated paramilitaries and terrorists". Mr Alan Shannon, the head of the Northern Ireland Prison Service, matter-of-factly explained that in the Maze the different paramilitary groupings were segregated. He accepted that "once that happens, then a degree of control internally is lost".
Three INLA prisoners, Christopher McWilliams (35), John Kennaway (35) and John Glennon (32), were charged with Wright's murder in Lisburn on Monday. McWilliams, who was jailed for life in 1992 for the murder of a Catholic doorman at a bar in Belfast, said when charged that Wright was executed for "directing and waging a campaign of terror against the nationalist people from his prison cell".
Wright's funeral took place on Tuesday. Portadown came to a standstill, cameramen were intimidated, and the obligatory "hard men" were out in force. Some miles away in Coalisland, mourners at the funeral of Seamus Dillon were told he had been building a new life for himself since his release from prison in 1994 and that he had given his life to save others. His family appealed for no retaliation.
On New Year's Eve, Eddie Treanor (31) died when loyalist gunmen attacked the Clifton Tavern on the Cliftonville Road in north Belfast with automatic weapons. Five others were injured. Increased surveillance by the RUC and British army had failed to prevent an attack on an obvious target in the area of the North worst affected by the Troubles.
The LVF claimed responsibility for the attack, but speculation of UFF involvement persists. "This is not the end," an LVF statement said. The INLA, admitting the Wright killing, also pledged to avenge any further loyalist attacks.
On New Year's night, parts of Belfast were like a ghost town. Cameras and buzzers were back in use in bookies' shops and bars in vulnerable Catholic areas. A chain of events had indeed been set in motion and "Happy New Year" seemed inappropriate.