The Government is expected to announce next Tuesday that it is going ahead with the Dublin Luas light rail system following deliberations by a Cabinet subcommittee on the issues involved.
Last Tuesday, after the Cabinet had decided to defer the matter for a week, the Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms O'Rourke, gave an unequivocal guarantee that Dublin would get a light rail system, whether on-street or underground in the city centre.
On Thursday afternoon a Cabinet sub-committee met for several hours to discuss the findings of the W.S. Atkins study, which examined both options and re commended proceeding with the plan put forward by CIE for an on-street system.
Much of the discussion in political circles has focused on the consultants' forecast that the first phase of Luas, linking Tallaght with Sandyford via the city centre, would result in just 1 per cent of motoring commuters switching to light rail.
Some Ministers are understood to believe that, if the benefits are so slight, the disruption of citycentre streets over the two-year construction phase could hardly be justified, especially if it was to result in a significant political backlash. However, CIE sources have been at pains to emphasise that the 1 per cent figure relates to the Dublin area as a whole.
In the corridors served by the first phase of Luas, at least 22 per cent of motorists would be attracted to use the proposed light rail service.
This would remove 3,300 cars a day from heavily congested roads leading into the city centre. As the system is extended in phases to serve other areas such as Ballymun and Finglas, the 1 per cent figure would increase proportionately.
"Atkins calculated that Luas would carry 29.2 million passengers a year," one source said. "The DART carries 17 million passengers a year and is regarded as a great success. Can you imagine what the roads would be like if Dublin didn't have it?"
Mr Brian Goff, chairman of the Dublin City Centre Business Association, has written to members of the Cabinet emphasising its support for an on-street Luas and calling on Ministers to go ahead with it and ensure that the work is done quickly.
Given that the association, unlike the Dublin Chamber of Commerce, represents many of the shopkeepers who would be most directly affected by disruption of streets during the construction phase, its support for the project is regarded as crucial.
The CIE project, costed by Atkins at £263 million (including longer trams and the planned extension to Sandyford Industrial Estate), is also backed by the South Dublin Chamber of Commerce in Tallaght and the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown Chamber of Commerce.
Mr Seamus Brennan, the Government Chief Whip, whose constituency includes Dundrum and Sandyford, is now believed to be pressing for the on-street Luas system to proceed, even though he had earlier championed the underground alternative.
The Tanaiste, Ms Harney, is still believed to have difficulties with the recommendation made by Atkins, particularly as the policy document on transport in Dublin issued by the Progressive Democrats two months ago favoured going underground.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and Ms O'Rourke, who both favour proceeding with Luas, met Ms Harney on Thursday in an effort to iron out these differences. A source close to the Taoiseach said yesterday: "Luas will go ahead."
