SHOULD Tony Blair eventually make it to 10 Downing Street he might well reflect, "it was McDonald's wot won it". Certainly some Tories fear that what started on Black Wednesday came full circle on Bovine Wednesday. And as the Labour leader berates Mr Major's government for "mind boggling incompetence" in its handling of the BSE crisis he can scarcely believe his luck.
This column has periodically advised against the assumption of a Labour victory come the general election. Over the past few months, indeed, we have charted the first signs of a Tory recovery. Labour's "adjusted" poll lead at this stage does not guarantee Mr Blair a working majority in the new House of Commons. And for all the attractiveness of the "New Labour" leader, serious doubts persist about the old instincts of the party he leads.
Perhaps it is an inevitable symptom of so many years in Opposition - but many think Mr Blair's shadow cabinet team does not compare well, man for man or woman for woman, with the dispirited bunch occupying the government benches. There is the persistent worry about the absence of a "Big Idea", and the nagging doubt about how Mr Blair will finance such commitments as have been made.
The tax year about to start actually finds people with more money in their pockets. Directly and indirectly the Chancellor has already poured a lot of cash into the system. And provided the Grim Reaper and the tactical calculations of the Ulster Unionists and the DUP permit - there is the assurance of more to come.
As the British beef industry teeters on the brink of collapse, Mr Major's government is staring into a political and economic abyss. And until the government charts a clear and convincing way through the crisis, it is impossible to know the effects on sterling, the balance of payments, the borrowing requirement, the government's anti inflation strategy, or on the Tory Party's hope that it can yet induce a "feel good factor" before the election.
It can hardly be said often enough that Mr Major is the unluckiest of prime ministers. His run of bad luck has continued, more or less unabated, since soon after he won the 1992 election.
Few could imagined that Mr Major's lingering hopes would finally be extinguished by public panic about the safety of the beefburger.
Time and again Mr Major has shown himself resilient in face of adversity. After each disaster, he picks himself up, dusts himself down, and starts all over again. But for some that very doggedness is an essential backdrop to the present crisis.
As the London Times put it yesterday: "Too often Mr Major has held to a position long after it should have been abandoned, and then when the maximum disadvantage has accrued, he has folded."
At this writing a major policy U turn appears under way. It remains to be seen if it will be sufficient to arrest the collapse in public confidence. A limited slaughter policy will be costly enough.
And it is far from certain that Brussels will be happy to dig into the coffers to help a British governments so evidently not at the heart of Europe.
Some optimists fancy the Prime Minister may yet turn the situation to advantage - do "a deal" at the Turin EU summit, perhaps on the finer points of qualified - majority voting, and return home with a fat cheque in his back pocket.
But he need not have put himself under such pressure or at such risk. Nor need he have invited the mocking chorus which will doubtless greet him from the Labour benches in the Commons tonight if the government announces, after all, that it is ready to sanction a limited cull of cattle.
Mr Major can complain that the Opposition is being opportunistic, seeking to exploit the crisis for party advantage. It was ministers, after all, who started the scare running. As one commentator put it, when Stephen Dorrell, the Health Secretary, and Douglas Hogg, the Agriculture Minister, prepared to address MPs last week, "they looked as if we were all about to die".
The Health Secretary earned some initial credits for candour in acknowledging that there might be a link between BSE and CJD, the human killer. But these were quickly squandered as Mr Dorrell - seemingly oblivious to his admission that previous scientific opinion had been wrong - determined that the recommendations of top scientists should set the limits for government action. As a result, there would be none, despite Mr Hogg's clear signal that he was indeed considering limited slaughter last weekend.
As the country awaited guidance on the risk from beef, particularly for children, ministers were fending off Paddy Ashdown's claims that the Treasury had overruled the Agriculture Minister on grounds of cost. And, finding himself roasted by angry callers to a radio phone in, Mr Dorrell suggested it wasn't the cows that were mad so much as the public.
But by yesterday, Mr Dorrell found himself singing a new tune. The argument, he declared, had moved on: "The issue is no longer a question of the safety of British beef. The question now is a matter of consumer confidence."
Having ruled out the need for further measures on Monday, ministers were sifting through the options on Tuesday. The results will be signalled at the start of tonight's Commons debate. We can only pray it is not a case of too little too late.