The most significant findings of this first campaign opinion poll offer the two major players in the Yes campaign, Mr David Trimble and Mr John Hume, a reasonable degree of comfort with, however, still a lot to play for.
While their respective parties are attracting increasing levels of support compared with the Forum election, over a quarter of the electorate are as yet undecided on their first preference intentions, and a very significant two in every five are unsure about their crucial second preferences.
In fact, the hearts and minds of many who voted Yes in the referendum have yet to be won. Before addressing the more detailed analyses, however, a brief outline of the background is set out below.
In the lead-up to the recent referendum, the initial Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll (conducted by the Harris Research Centre) on April 14th showed a substantial five to one majority in favour of a Yes vote, with 13 per cent undecided, while the next poll on May 13th reflected a tightening to two to one in favour.
However, the final survey conducted three days in advance of the referendum and published on the final day of the campaign showed 71 per cent intending to vote Yes and 29 per cent No (having adjusted for 15 per cent who remained undecided). These figures were identical to the actual outcome.
This survey, the primary objective of which was to measure voting intentions in the forthcoming election, is based on a sample of 1,005 electors across all 18 constituencies. In the actual election, the PR STV system, similar to that in the Republic, will be used, and each constituency will return six members to the 108-seat Assembly. The objective of all parties will be to obtain the maximum number of seats, and the exercise of forecasting the likely seats for each party from the survey figures should be done only with reservations and with full regard for all the relevant figures.
The experience in the Republic is that the ratio of seats to first preference votes varies from election to election and also from party to party. In the 1997 general election in the Republic, 16 per cent of seats (26) were filled on the first count and, of these, two-thirds were in the larger five-seat constituencies.
While this could indicate that the number of candidates elected on the first count in the Assembly election could be higher than 16 per cent, it does not diminish the crucial importance of second and subsequent preferences, which will undoubtedly be the basis for the election of the majority of successful candidates.
One of the factors which will influence the ratio of seats to votes is the number of nominated candidates.
These net figures, (see adjoining panel) which provide pointers to the outcome of the election and comparability with previous elections, contain few surprises, and reflect increased support for the UUP, the SDLP and the Alliance Party, relative to the Forum election in 1996.
The DUP figure of 13 per cent is almost identical to its Westminster election impact but is down six points on the Forum election. As is sometimes observed, opinion polls frequently understate support for Sinn Fein, and the party's current figure of 8 per cent represents a downturn on both the Forum and Westminster elections.
If the ratio of seats to votes in the Forum election is taken as a criterion (and this will almost certainly not materialise in the Assembly election), then the only party likely to obtain more than 30 seats would be the UUP; the SDLP would be short three or four, and the DUP would hold marginally more than half of this vital 30 figure.
However, allowance must be made for the fact that Sinn Fein may do considerably better than the survey indicates, and the Alliance party is also very likely to obtain a much better second preference ratio than it did in the Forum election. This trend emerges quite strongly since, at this juncture, Alliance is the most favourably positioned party in second preference terms. The UUP also emerges as having the potential to capitalise on second preferences.
In overall terms, the situation at this early stage is that parties which supported the Yes vote in the referendum are strongly positioned, and the high levels of undecideds may indicate a possible lower turnout than in the referendum, rather than a significant change in support for either of the two major parties.
The issues
Although many issues were spontaneously seen to be very important, two were predominant and each was supported by contrasting demographic and political characteristics. The two are decommissioning and peace. The former is very noticeably associated with all unionist parties, and also with young electors, while the broader issue of peace is more typical of older people and also has nationalist and Alliance support.
The release of prisoners is positioned in third place, and attracts a considerable level of cross-party support, with UUP and Sinn Fein voters seeing it as equally important.
Half of the electorate - which includes heavy majorities among all unionists - feels that decommissioning should commence immediately. This viewpoint is also held by a quarter of SDLP supporters and one-in-five of Sinn Fein. However, most nationalists hold the view that it can wait until after the Executive meets or longer.
Confidence in the Assembly
A reasonable level of confidence exists - represented by a marginal majority - that the Assembly will work, with about one-in-seven undecided. Those most confident are nationalists, young people under 24, and supporters of all parties - unionist and nationalist - except those in the DUP and UKUP.