A clear majority of voters believes the claim by secondary teachers for a 30 per cent pay increase is not justified, according to the latest Irish Times/ MRBI opinion poll.
However, when asked who is to blame for the disruption in schools, the public blames the Government and the Association of Secondary Teachers, Ireland (ASTI) in almost equal measure.
Asked if they believe the pay demand was justified, 53 per cent said it was not justified, 38 per cent said it was and 9 per cent offered no opinion.
Asked who is responsible for the disruption, 32 per cent blamed the Government, 31 per cent blamed ASTI and 32 per cent said both sides were equally responsible.
The poll was conducted among a quota sample of 1,000 at 100 sample points in all constituencies in the State on Monday and Tuesday of last week. This was shortly after the Taoiseach's Irish Times article in which he suggested an internal power struggle might be driving the ASTI dispute. But the poll was taken before the union agreed to enter Labour Court talks last Saturday.
The failure of the ASTI to build a groundswell of support will disappoint the union. Last October, the ASTI published a poll which indicated widespread public support for its 30 per cent pay claim. Before the strike action began, the union also invested £200,000 in a TV advertising campaign designed to build support for its campaign.
The union will have expected some decline in public support as most secondary schools were closed for nine days last term and for one day this term. But the fact that fewer than 40 per cent of voters support the 30 per cent pay demand will shock many teachers.
Opposition to the 30 per cent demand is evident across party lines. Some 55 per cent of Fianna Fail voters and 54 per cent of Fine Gael supporters believe the demand is not justified. According to the poll, 53 per cent of students also oppose the ASTI claim.
Opposition is higher in rural areas (56 per cent) than in urban centres (52 per cent). It is also higher among male voters - 58 per cent of males opposed the ASTI demand with 48 per cent of females opposed.
Today's poll will do little to strengthen the hand of ASTI negotiators as they make their case to the Labour Court.
The union's failure to exempt Leaving Cert students from their strike action has clearly damaged public support. The campaign has also been damaged by ASTI's failure to draw support from the leaderships of the other teaching unions.