Nearly 50 per cent of farmers feel the Fischler proposals to reform the CAP will have no impact or will have a positive impact on their incomes, according to a Teagasc survey published yesterday.
The agriculture and food development researchers found that almost 40 per cent of farmers they surveyed felt the implementation of the proposed changes would have no impact on their farm revenues.
The survey of 1,100 farmers, which was conducted in recent weeks, found that 9 per cent of those surveyed were expecting their incomes to increase under the new regime. However, a total of 20 per cent of the farmers felt the changes would lead to a reduction in income and a total of 34 per cent did not know what impact the changes might bring.
The reforms which were devised by the EU farm commissioner, Dr Fischler, involve switching supports on animals and crops to an area-based system.
Farmers who were involved in beef and dairy farming were the most pessimistic about the impact of the reforms and a total of 41 per cent of these felt their incomes would drop.
The Teagasc economist who prepared the survey, Mr Liam Connolly, told the Teagasc "Situation and Outlook Conference" yesterday that farmers would reduce their beef and cow numbers by 12 per cent if the new proposals were implemented.
He said sheep and cow numbers would fall by 18 per cent in western counties and by 12 per cent in eastern counties. In contrast, dairy farmers in the south and east said they would increase cow numbers by 5 per cent while those in the west said they would reduce their cow numbers by 2 per cent.
The survey also covered farmer investment plans for next year and found that 25,000 farmers planned to invest almost €300 million in their farms. Mr Connolly said farmers had indicated in 2001 they planned to invest €345 million this year but investment was much higher than predicted and 38,500 farmers had invested just over €500 million during the past year, nearly half of it in machinery.
The survey also found that the majority of farmers, 83 per cent, believed they would have sufficient winter feed for their animals this winter. However, 14 per cent said they faced a shortage of winter fodder and 2 per cent said they did not know.
Only 2 per cent of farmers said they were interested in converting their farms to organic production and 11 per cent of the over 55-year old farmers surveyed said they planned to avail of the early retirement scheme.
In a comment on last week's figures from the Central Statistics Office which estimated an 8.5 per cent decline in farm income this year, Mr Connolly said dairy and tillage farmers had taken the brunt of the income decline.
He said all the major enterprises experienced a drop in output and profitability and his colleague, Mr Billy Fingleton, said higher costs and lower prices had resulted in an average drop of 20 per cent in dairy farming margins.
Mr Paul Kelly of Teagasc said lower prices and reduced yields resulted in a drop of about 25 per cent this year in the margins for the two major cereal crops and only potato growers could expect improved margins this year.