MEXICO CITY – Mexico’s left-wing presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has cut the gap on frontrunner Enrique Peña Nieto to just four percentage points according to a new poll, raising doubts about the outcome of the July 1st election.
The latest voter survey by newspaper Reforma, published on Thursday, showed support for 2006 runner-up López Obrador at 34 per cent, up seven points from a previous poll last month.
Peña Nieto, candidate of the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled Mexico for most of the 20th century, dropped four points to 38 per cent, his worst showing since the campaign formally began at the end of March.
The turnaround in Peña Nieto’s fortunes sent a shiver through markets in Mexico, reflecting uncertainty about how strong the next government would be, and echoing fears that surfaced during López Obrador’s run for the presidency in 2006.
Peña Nieto has held a big lead in most polls, but has come under pressure in the last two weeks with thousands of people taking to Mexico City’s streets to protest against him and the PRI. Organisers have called for more marches in coming weeks.
“The variations in support reflect a month of campaign that witnessed the mobilisation of students for information and against Enrique Peña, and the rise of corruption on the public agenda,” Reforma pollster Alejandro Moreno said in the paper.
The new Reforma poll was taken between May 24th and 27th, after the big protest on May 19th. It showed Josefina Vázquez Mota of the conservative National Action Party, or PAN, that has governed Mexico since 2000, dropping six points to 23 per cent.
The latest survey showed the race to be much closer than other recent polls have suggested.
One, conducted by polling firm Consulta Mitofsky between May 25th and 27th, gave Peña Nieto a lead of 17.5 percentage points after stripping out undecided voters.
Mr López Obrador lost the 2006 election by less than a percentage point. He contested the results, declaring himself the rightful president of Mexico and staging months of street protests that choked the capital.
In this campaign, he has taken a more moderate tone but he has struggled to win back former supporters put off by his refusal to accept defeat in 2006.
“Peña is losing steam,” Mr López Obrador said after seeing the poll. “He is the candidate of the media, not of the people.”
– (Reuters)