The ability to fight two major wars simultaneously has long been the yardstick for US defence spending, force levels and procurement. But it may soon be ditched as unnecessarily ambitious in a fundamental review of US needs.
The radical review undertaken by the Defence Department under its new Secretary, Mr Don Rumsfeld, is intended to refocus the US military on the post-Cold War need for more flexible and rapidly-deployable forces.
And yesterday the Washington Post reported that the "two major wars" doctrine, for long a justification for keeping some 1.4 million men under arms, is likely to be one of the strategic casualties of the review.
What will replace the doctrine as an expression of US minimum needs is not clear.
Troop cuts may go some way to easing the cost of the investment in new technology that Mr Rumsfeld sees as crucial, not least a US missile defence system, but are also likely to put added pressure on US commitments to Europe, whether to NATO in Germany or in the Balkans.
Mr Rumsfeld's strategy paper, which he is expected to publish next week, is said also to emphasise the need for the US to concentrate on east Asia rather than Europe.
The result of the review, despite force reductions, is likely to be a massive increase in US defence spending, with the Pentagon already looking for an extra $6 billion on top of this year's $296 billion if it is to avoid cutbacks in its current training programmes, and likely to look for an additional $20 billion for 2002.
In 2003 further costs of reform are likely to be in the area of missile defence.
The review, being prepared by a strategy committee under the veteran Pentagon insider, Mr Andrew Marshall, has pitched sections of the military against each other in a battle for their favourite toys, and the navy, according to the Washington Times, has won an early skirmish in defence of the aircraft carrier.
Outside the navy the carriers have strong support in Virginia's chairman of the Armed Services Committee, Senator John Warner. They are built in Virginia.
The air force is said to be fighting a battle for the new generation F22 stealth fighter. It wants to buy 339 at a cost of $62 billion, claiming the aircraft would give the US a new edge. Meanwhile, an air force plane yesterday flew the first US reconnaissance flight off China's coast since the April 1st collision between a navy spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet, a US defence official said.
The RC-135 reconnaissance plane, flying from Kadena air base on the Japanese island of Okinawa, flew a routine track along the northern portion of China's coastline, the official said.
The unarmed air force plane, which is used routinely for surveillance flights off China's coast, drew no response from the Chinese military, the official said. No Chinese fighters intercepted the aircraft, which completed its daylight mission yesterday and returned to Kadena air base.
The Bush administration had said it intended to resume surveillance flights off China's coast.
