1997: FF 42.95%; FG 48.75%; GP 1.52%; NP 1.18%; Others 5.59%. Outgoing TDs: Tom Moffatt and Beverley Cooper-Flynn (FF), Enda Kenny, Jim Higgins and Michael Ring (FG).
Independent candidate Dr Jerry Cowley's first-count result is the one to watch here, followed closely by the fortunes of FF's Beverley Cooper-Flynn. The key will be the share-out of the Castlebar vote. Outgoing Fine Gael TD Michael Ring could damage colleagues Enda Kenny and Jim Higgins if he goes too far ahead on the first count. Given a national swing to FF, FG could find it extremely difficult to repeat the 48.75% share of the vote it won in 1997. Could Enda Kenny be the one most at risk?