Fine Gael's figures for the number of gardaí on the streets are not a 'con job', writes Liam Reid
In a self-confessed "angry" outburst yesterday, Minister for Justice Michael McDowell turned the issue of Garda numbers and crime figures into one of credibility, not only for Fine Gael, but for himself as well.
The exact number of officers on the streets of Dublin would appear to be quite a simple question but yesterday there was little clarity on the matter.
The row began on Sunday when Fine Gael issue a press release, based on figures in a parliamentary reply, stating that the number of gardaí in Dublin had increased by just two between 2004 and 2005.
Fine Gael finance spokesman Richard Bruton said the claim was based on the fact that on December 31st, 2005, Garda numbers in Dublin stations stood at 3,742. This compared to 3,740 on the same date in 2004. He compared this figure to the situation of December 31st, 2000, when there were 3,542. He said this showed there had been an increase of 200 or just over 5 per cent.
Yesterday, Mr McDowell retaliated in spectacular fashion, claiming that what Mr Bruton did was "fraudulent", "dishonest" and "a con job". Since he was Minister, the number of gardaí in Dublin had risen by 278, and by 700 nationally, he said.
He also produced two tables which he said showed that not only had Garda numbers increased by more than 2,000 to nearly 12,300 since the rainbow coalition left office in 1997, but by the end of this year, there would be more than 14,000 gardaí and trainee gardaí.
But a closer analysis reveals that Mr McDowell, despite using the words "fraudulent", and "dishonest" about Mr Bruton, did not say the figures were false. What he is saying is that they were cherry-picked from a series of parliamentary questions to show the figures in the worst light possible. Comparing "snapshot figures" on any given date were not correct, as the figures fluctuate depending on the retirements and officers being reassigned, he argued. You have to look at the trend, he said, and that was upward.
Indeed, of the three parliamentary questions asked by Mr Bruton on Garda numbers in Dublin, the December 31st, 2005 number was the lowest. He was given figures which showed that on November 28th Garda numbers in Dublin were 3,847, and on May 23rd last year they were 3,769. Mr McDowell went on to quote figures showing that there were 3,685 on March 31st, 2005, compared to 3,794 yesterday, which showed an increase of 109. Does this mean that Mr Bruton was being fraudulent, or a "Dr Goebbels" as Mr McDowell put it yesterday? The Minister may well have a point that Fine Gael's claims focus on a specific region for a specific period, but this most certainly does not mean they are fraudulent or a con job.
Mr Bruton's basic point was that Garda numbers in Dublin had remained relatively static during 2005, and that point is a very valid one. Indeed, figures produced by Mr McDowell to defend his position yesterday back up an argument that Garda numbers were relatively static throughout 2005. The strength of the Garda might have increased significantly since 1997, from 10,702 to 12,264, a rise of 1,562. However, a small portion of this has occurred in the last four years. At the end of 2002, there were 11,895 gardaí. At the end of last year there were 12,265, an increase of just 370 officers.
Between 2004 and 2005, the number of Garda officers rose by just 55 nationally, a very modest rise, and one which backs up Mr Bruton's contention.
The Government committed to increase Garda numbers to 14,000 in its Programme for Government in 2002 but because of the cutbacks in 2002 and 2003, failed to implement the plan until November 2004. As a result of the two year period in which it takes to train a garda, the numbers will not begin to rise significantly again until the end of this year.