Michael McDowell faces a tough task in his attempt to regain his DublinSouth East seat, lost in the last election, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter
Michael McDowell's exit as a TD came after a personally painful week-long recount in the Dublin South East constituency in the last general election. He lost by a mere 27 votes to Mr John Gormley, of the Green Party, and his disappointment was obvious.
His decision to contest the next election is good news for his party, and bad news for Mr Gormley whose seat is the obvious target if the Attorney General is to return to the Dáil.
The other three seats are held by the Labour leader, Mr Ruairí Quinn, the Fianna Fáil Minister of State for Local Development, Mr Eoin Ryan, and the Fine Gael spokeswoman on social, community and family affairs, Ms Frances Fitzgerald. The consensus is that the three will retain their seats, with Mr Gormley and Mr McDowell battling it out for the fourth seat. Mr Tom Crilly, of the Workers' Party, will also be a candidate.
Although Mr McDowell insists that he has no particular seat in mind, Mr Gormley conceded yesterday that he is most vulnerable to the PD challenge.
"Let us not kid ourselves. My seat is the vulnerable one, irrespective of what spin is put on the issue. However, I believe I can hold on. The news has had the effect of galvanising the Green Party organisation, and I will get help from party members outside the constituency in my campaign."
Last time, Mr Ryan headed the poll, taking the first seat on the seventh count, despite the fact that Fianna Fáil's 25.79 per cent share of the vote was the lowest in any constituency in the State. Since then, Mr Ryan has increased his profile as a junior minister. He will have a running mate, Mr Chris Andrews, and an increase in the party's vote could be to Mr McDowell's advantage in terms of transfers.
Ms Fitzgerald, who finished third on first preferences, took the second seat in the ninth count. Her running mate next time will be Mr Colm MacEochaidh.
As the electoral tide went out for Labour, Mr Quinn, who was second in first preferences, comfortably took the third seat, despite a drop of 4,268 votes on his 1992 performance. Given his enhanced profile as a party leader, he is likely to increase his vote considerably next time.
So the battle for the final seat is likely to be a repeat of 1997. Last time, Mr Gormley was ahead in first preferences - 4,296 to 4,022 - and Mr McDowell narrowly lost out, despite a significant transfer from Fianna Fáil.
Mr Gormley had served a term as Lord Mayor of Dublin and was vocal on environmental issues. Since then, he has increased his profile as a Dáil deputy.
Last time, Mr McDowell was an outgoing TD with an impressive record in the Dáil and considerable attention given to constituency work.
But the PD campaign nationally was a disaster, with Mr McDowell keeping a low profile, apparently as part of an ill-fated strategy not to antagonise Fianna Fáil supporters.
Had it been otherwise, his high profile in a national campaign might well have secured him the extra votes to stay ahead of Mr Gormley. Next time, he will be running as an outgoing Attorney General and party president, with considerable influence over PD policy.
Mr McDowell's return to his role as the party's ideological driving force - he once coined the phrase that the party had to be "radical or redundant" - will put him centre stage in Irish politics. And with Fianna Fáil looking benignly on his candidacy, he might just get a sufficient number of the all-important transfers to return him to the Dáil.
But Mr Gormley, a gritty fighter, will not be easily dislodged. As of now, he is a stronger bet to win the seat.