CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: MID-ULSTER:SINN FÉIN cannot go wrong in this constituency. Martin McGuinness is, according to a Belfast Telegraph poll just five months ago, Northern Ireland's most respected politician.
There is even grudging support from unionists who, although highly unlikely to vote for him on May 6th, give him some credit for his transformation from former senior IRA figure to joint head of the Stormont Executive. Among unionist supporters, Mr McGuinness scored an 11 per cent approval score, equalling that of Ulster Unionist leader Sir Reg Empey.
Mr McGuinness also easily outpolled First Minister and DUP leader Peter Robinson in the Belfast Telegraph survey by some 20 points – and that was before the breaking of the controversy surrounding Iris Robinson.
In crude terms, this constituency is roughly two-thirds Catholic/nationalist and is the second safest seat for Sinn Féin since the boundaries were redrawn in advance of the 1997 Westminster election in which Mr McGuinness defeated the DUP’s William McCrea.
Sinn Féin holds three of the constituency’s six Assembly seats. The SDLP, by comparison, has just one and the remainder is shared between the DUP and the Ulster Unionists.
In 2005 , Mr McGuinness polled just over 47 per cent of the popular vote, placing him almost 10,000 votes ahead of his closest rival.
Sinn Féin abstains from Westminster so the “double jobbing” controversy that has affected drastically the look of the candidate list in this area has not altered the Sinn Féin campaign.
However, other parties, from the SDLP to the various unionists, are making much of the fact that elected representatives ought to take their Westminster seats for pragmatic reasons.
Cllr Tony Quinn, the SDLP candidate, argues that the Sinn Féin stance “is an ideological position which is well past its sell-by date”. The party is also holding up the prospect of a public expenditure-cutting Conservative government at Westminster, and arguing that all parties opposed to them need to make their voices heard in the House of Commons.
The DUP is fielding Ian McCrea, the local Assembly member who also opposed Mr McGuinness in 2005.
He is the son of William McCrea, MP for South Antrim, and will face a challenge from Traditional Unionist Voice candidate Walter Miller within the unionist fold.
Sandra Overend is standing for the Ulster Unionists under the joint banner of the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force, meaning voters will have the option of a candidate openly associated with David Cameron’s Tories.
Alliance is running Ian Butler, who is offering “solutions and hard work instead of tribal dogma”.
MID-ULSTER: OUTGOING MP: MARTIN McGUINNESS
CANDIDATES NOMINATED TO DATE
Ian ButlerAlliance
Walter Miller Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV)
Ian McCrea MLADUP
Martin McGuinnessSF
Sandra OverendUlster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force
Tony QuinnSDLP
LAST ELECTION 2005 Votes % + / –
Martin McGuinness(SF) 21,641 47.6% -3.5%
Ian McCrea(DUP) 10,665 23.5% -7.6%
Patsy McGlone(SDLP) 7,922 17.4% +0.6%
Billy Armstrong(UUP) 4,853 10.7% N/A
Francis Donnelly(WP) 345 0.8% -0.2%