Merkel alliance has narrow lead as vote looms

Conservative leader Angela Merkel's centre-right alliance has re-established a slight poll lead over its leftist rivals two days…

Conservative leader Angela Merkel's centre-right alliance has re-established a slight poll lead over its leftist rivals two days before an election that could decide the fate of Germany's long-cherished welfare state.

A man cycles past defaced election campaign posters of Social Democratic German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (R) and his challenger Angela Merkel (L) chairwoman of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Berlin
A man cycles past defaced election campaign posters of Social Democratic German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (R) and his challenger Angela Merkel (L) chairwoman of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Berlin

A survey by the Allensbach Institute this evening put support for Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), their sister Christian Social Union (CSU) and their preferred coalition partners, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), at 49.5 per cent - enough for a slim majority under Germany's electoral system.

That compared to a combined 48 per cent for all other major parties, comprising 32.5 per cent for Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD), 7 per cent for their Greens partners and 8.5 per cent for the far-left Left Party.

The Allensbach poll, which was likely to be the last survey released before Germans vote on Sunday, echoed the results of another poll from Forsa, which gave a centre-right Merkel-led coalition support of between 48 and 51 per cent.

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The latest surveys are a huge boost for Merkel, whose party held a commanding double-digit lead in opinion polls several weeks ago but has been thrown on the defensive by the dynamic campaigning of Schroeder and furious attacks by his party.

To ensure free rein to push through the aggressive economic reforms she hopes will kick-start Germany's sluggish economy, Merkel says she needs a governing coalition with the FDP.

The alternative, should her preferred grouping fail to win a parliamentary majority, is a messy "grand coalition" with Schroeder's SPD, who disagree with much of her programme.

Other European countries are focused on Germany, eager to see which path its citizens choose - the more liberal, unregulated route favoured in the United States and Britain or Europe's traditional state-heavy road.

With the race so tight, Schroeder and Merkel have vowed to break from usual practice and campaign through the weekend. Voting ends at 4pm (Irish time) on Sunday and the first exit polls will be released at that time.

Agencies