Message for Blair is to get unionists back on side

Sinn Fein's annual ardfheis tends to reflect closely the atmosphere of its time

Sinn Fein's annual ardfheis tends to reflect closely the atmosphere of its time. In the past, sometimes, it had the same hunted, slightly furtive air as a meeting of Soviet dissidents during the Cold War.

Last year there was an air of post-Good Friday excitement as the party stifled its reservations and voted through the compromises made necessary by the Belfast Agreement. One wonders if there would have been the same eagerness to move forward had the delegates known that, one year later, their party would still be knocking on the door of the cabinet room at Stormont.

It's official now, what most of us have expected for some time, that the Sinn Fein ministerial nominees will be Martin McGuinness and Bairbre de Brun. Whether they will ever take up office remains a moot point.

The scenario outlined by the republicans is that unless Tony Blair pressurises David Trimble to form a cabinet that includes Sinn Fein in the next two to three weeks, loyalist attacks could wreck the peace process.

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Had the ardfheis been held in the immediate aftermath of the Hillsborough Declaration, there would have been a very angry atmosphere indeed. As it was, the mood was low-key and restrained - except when the D-word was discussed.

Hillsborough was a determined effort to secure IRA decommissioning - not so much by the back door as by the side door. There would be simultaneous gestures from the security forces as part of a collective act of reconciliation.

A spoonful of sugar was meant to help the medicine go down. But the more militant and activist side of the movement detected the whiff of surrender in the Hillsborough proposals. In the tense atmosphere generated by the Rosemary Nelson killing and the spate of pipe-bomb attacks on nationalists, the attempt to neutralise and detoxify the decommissioning issue embodied in the Hillsborough text didn't stand a chance.

The idea floated in the British media earlier this month - of nominating a shadow executive which would take power if there was decommissioning within six months - was the dying kick of the Hillsborough approach. Dublin wasn't having any, nor was it prepared to see the process shelved for the long hot summer.

Ironically, the recent period when the Taoiseach has been subject to most criticism domestically has also been a time when republicans have spoken relatively warmly of his firm stance against attempts to "park" the Belfast Agreement. The car may be stationary but Bertie Ahern is at least prepared to give it a push.

But senior republicans worry that, from their point of view, it may be too late, that Hillsborough and the Sunday Times interview before it may have encouraged the unionists to dig themselves so deep into a hole on decommissioning that it may be impossible for them to escape.

Now the republicans are pointing the finger towards London, highlighting the need as they see it for Mr Blair to seize a unique opportunity. The Prime Minister has, in his own words, felt the hand of history on his shoulder, now Sinn Fein wants David Trimble to feel the hand of Tony Blair giving him a shove in the right direction.

This morning the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Fein have another meeting at Stormont. Little is expected from it and republicans say that however good the atmosphere, the unionists will not move without pressure from London. It will mainly be an appetiser for the multi-party session chaired by the two prime ministers that is to follow shortly afterwards.

Sinn Fein has put forward certain unspecified ideas for ending the current impasse. It has refused to give details, although it is known that a more proactive role for Gen John de Chastelain forms a central element of its approach. Like other nationalists, the republicans feel the general should be seen to be more independent of the governments and the parties. Sinn Fein believes the agreement gives the general the same level of independence as the chairman of the policing commission, Mr Chris Patten, or the head of the new Human Rights Commission in the North, Prof Brice Dickson. As the republicans interpret the Good Friday text, the general could verify that Sinn Fein is fulfilling the terms of the decommissioning section of the agreement, which simply requires the party to use its influence to achieve a weapons hand-over.

Speculation about a further IRA statement declaring that the "war" was over has been dismissed by insiders. But there might be a possibility of a further declaration from Sinn Fein along the lines of Mr Gerry Adams's statement on the need for violence to be "over, done with and gone".

None of this would appear to provide any particular comfort to the unionists. Like others in the process, they will presumably have to come to terms with the reality that the IRA will not hand over arms in advance of the formation of the executive. This means the options are to enter government with Sinn Fein in the absence of decommissioning or to allow the agreement to collapse because it is highly unlikely the SDLP will go it alone.

The demise of the agreement is not a prospect to cause universal dismay in the unionist camp. But it will doubtless cause concern in Downing Street, especially now that Scotland and Wales are about to have devolved governments but Northern Ireland, the third leg of the stool, remains in political suspension.

One of the biggest rounds of applause at the ardfheis came for the delegate who said, "We were prepared to bite the bullet, not give it away." Senior republicans like to point out that the IRA guns are silent - but they have been speculating lately that "events on the ground" may put the ceasefire under pressure if the executive isn't formed within weeks. The comments reportedly made by Mr Blair to a German magazine, that decommissioning was "an issue more of symbolism and trust than it is to do with the foundations of the agreement" suggest that he may be taking the republican message to heart. Be that as it may, there can be little doubt that a summer full of threat and foreboding looms ahead of everyone.