With a shake-up under way in RTÉ, Today FM gaining ground and NewsTalk branching out of Dublin, Emmet Oliver looks at the battle for listeners
The next three months promise to be a tense period in the bunker-like RTÉ radio centre. DJs and broadcasters tend to react with bitterness and anger when they are taken off the air or moved to time slots more "conducive" to their talents.
In 1993, when BBC Radio 1 was gripped by a series of sackings orchestrated by new controller Matthew Bannister, the microphone became a weapon of choice in the propaganda battle between those getting the push and those doing the pushing. Veteran broadcaster Dave Lee Travis famously announced his resignation on-air.
In his notorious speech, he criticised Bannister's plans with the much-quoted words: "There are changes being made at the station that go against my principles." It is not clear whether the actions of another former BBC executive - Ana Leddy, now head of RTÉ Radio 1 - will prompt any of RTÉ's household names to take to the microphone over the next three months. Leddy, who moved to RTÉ from BBC Radio Foyle in March, this week instituted her own cull of senior RTÉ broadcasters. By BBC standards it was a mild re-deployment of precious broadcasting resources, by RTÉ standards it was a bloodbath on an epic scale.
The timing of the changes was curious. Last Thursday fresh listenership figures were released showing falling trends at flagship shows such as Morning Ireland and the Gerry Ryan Show. While the former probably has little to worry about, the latter programme clearly needs a makeover of some sort (it lost 11,000 listeners in the latest figures alone).
While there was dark talk about the ultimate destiny of Gerry Ryan in subsequent days, attention switched on Monday from RTÉ to NewsTalk 106 which was awarded a quasi-national licence by the Broadcasting Commission of Ireland (BCI).
The confluence of the two events makes the changes instituted by Leddy on Thursday look like a panicked knee-jerk response to falling ratings and new competition, suggests one school of thought.
An alternative school suggests that context can sometimes help to make your case. Since she arrived in March, Leddy, with the BBC for 18 years, has been taking a root-and-branch look at RTÉ Radio 1, and making the announcement in the wake of the listenership figures was a clever move. Many RTÉ staff were surprised at the severity of the changes, but there was also a certain amount of admiration for Leddy's willingness to make the awkward decisions.
Leddy is unlikely to be shackled by the older conventions of RTÉ's radio centre monolith. By placing Derek Mooney and, to a lesser extent, Des Cahill and Dave Fanning in their own niches in the new schedule, she is sending out a clear message: personality-led radio, for so long eschewed by RTÉ, is firmly on the agenda at Montrose.
Being merely competent or well-read in news and current affairs is no longer enough to front a major prime-time programme. There has to be something else; there has to be that most elusive of commodities - personality. RTÉ has been learning this lesson from Today FM which unapologetically pushes its "personalities" (ironically, two of them are former RTÉ employees, Ray D'Arcy and Ian Dempsey). NewsTalk has done the same with George Hook and Eamon Dunphy.
Both stations have plastered the sides of buses with pictures of Hook, Dunphy, Matt Cooper, Dempsey and D'Arcy. While Hook and Cooper were given the full treatment on bus shelters and the like, Rachael English, the presenter of Five Seven Live was not given similar promotion and is now taking on other projects at RTÉ. What RTÉ has been doing is marketing the station, not its various personalities. A different approach has been taken with the human capital of RTÉ television but, as the saying goes, that's television.
With RTÉ Radio it has been more a case of the whole being more important than the sum of the parts. But with NewsTalk about to become effectively a national station, this view may no longer be sustainable.
Newstalk is not a new kid on the block. Once dismissed as "radio zero per cent" (back in 2003 it had a market share figure of nought) it has clawed its way up the market share league in Dublin and now has 8 per cent.
Intriguingly, its two main presenters, George Hook and Eamon Dunphy, are poised to smash through symbolic milestones soon - 40,000 listeners in Hook's case and 30,000 in Dunphy's. Going quasi-national (expected to give 80 per cent national coverage) could make this happen.
Elaine Geraghty, NewsTalk chief executive, says the station has clear objectives when it hits the bigger stage: 4 per cent market share in year one and 6 per cent in year five of operation.
"It is our intention to attract a new audience to talk radio. Our experience in Dublin has shown us that 25-44 year olds (our core demographic) are disenfranchised with current talk offerings and are seeking an alternative."
Geraghty has no problem in defining the station's approach and using that "p" word. "NewsTalk is personality-driven radio, but those personalities are both national household names and brand new talent. It is important that we go national with names that are familiar to the audience; however, we believe it is equally important that NewsTalk continues to be a place where new talent can be developed," she says.
Four years ago Dermot Hanrahan, who used to run FM 104, was a shareholder in NewsTalk and he controversially said the station would never make progress until it stopped trying to ape RTÉ. Geraghty believes this is not even an issue any more.
"We cover news, sport and talk in a completely different way - we are a clear alternative. We have never suffered from an unearned sense of our own importance."
HOW IS NEWSTALK'S arrival likely to affect RTÉ? Based on the population of Dublin and the rest of the country, theoretically it should be possible for each NewsTalk programme to almost triple its audience in time. So, based on that rule of thumb, Hook should eventually pick up about 120,000 listeners and Dunphy should reach approximately 90,000. NewsTalk has other advantages previous national ventures did not, such as Century or Radio Ireland. Its presenters come pre-packaged as national media "brands". Eamon Dunphy is known in every household in Ireland, while George Hook enjoys a national profile as a TV rugby pundit.
If NewsTalk manages to eventually get that tripling effect, it could have a considerable impact on RTÉ, but Today FM is also a target. For many years it has been building up its own stable of presenters, many of them taking direct aim at their RTÉ equivalents. For example, for decades Dave Fanning was the embodiment of Irish rock and alternative music, but in the last few years former Something Happens frontman Tom Dunne has encroached on his turf. Now Fanning is leaving for the more tranquil pastures of RTÉ Radio 1.
Today FM chief executive Willie O'Reilly agrees that personality is key. He says that getting presenters who can connect with younger audiences is the biggest challenge in Irish radio. However, he says the RTÉ changes are clever and he calls the decision to make better use of Derek Mooney an "inspired" move.
While nobody is sure how the main plot is going to resolve itself when the quasi-national NewsTalk comes on air in September and the RTÉ changes occur, the various sub-plots make for more compelling drama.
There is the evening tussle between Hook, Cooper and a yet-to-be-announced RTÉ presenter. There is the morning battle between Morning Ireland and Eamon Dunphy. There is also the congested mid-morning battle between Gerry Ryan (2 FM), Ray D'Arcy (Today FM), Ryan Tubridy (RTÉ 1) and Orla Barry (NewsTalk 106).
With so much bare-knuckled competition for the listeners, what goes on off-mike could prove far more interesting than anything happening in studio.
• Emmet Oliver is an Irish Times journalist and presents Down to Business on NewsTalk 106 on Saturdays