MIDDLE EAST:Bethlehem, site of Jesus's birth, is not alone in its shifting religious patterns, writes Michael Jansen
The cash-strapped Hamas government has allocated $50,000 (€38,000) for Christmas commemorations in Bethlehem, and Israel has pledged to facili- tate the transit of 18,000 pilgrims to the Church of the Nativity for the feast. But few of the little town's native Christians will be there to celebrate. In 1948, Bethlehem was 90 per cent Christian; now it is 65 per cent Muslim.
Christians have emigrated while Muslims from the neighbourhood have moved into Bethlehem, which is surrounded by Israel's colonies and wall complex and cut off from Jerusalem by a terminal on the border of the West Bank.
Israel's military occupation and settlement policies, which have displaced Muslims, have also squeezed Bethlehem economically so that few of its inhabitants can make a living by selling services and mementoes to pilgrims. When tourism was at its height, 100,000 visited each month; today that figure is 20,000. Most visitors are bused in for a few hours and spend little money.
The violence and upheaval of two Palestinian risings have also prompted Christians to leave. Although Christians participated in the first intifada (1987-93), they have been largely excluded from the second, which began in 2000. This revolt against Israel has been largely conducted by Muslim fundamentalists initially fostered by the West to counter the region's four secular nationalist movements - the Syrian Social National Party, the Arab Nationalists, the Baath, and the communists, all founded by Christians with a pan-Arab and anti-Israel agenda. When they failed to achieve these objectives, fundamentalists took over the struggle for unity and against Israel.
Hostile graffiti have been spray-painted on the walls of churches, threatening letters have been sent to Christians, and Christian properties have been confiscated by Israel and illegally appropriated by corrupt Palestinian officials. The fall of the secular Fatah movement from power and the formation of a government by Hamas has heightened Christian anxieties.
Tens of thousands of Iraqi Christians are also fleeing the chaos and violence unleashed by the 2003 US occupation. In 1990, before the imposition of sanctions and the 1991 US-led war, Christians numbered 600,000, about 3 per cent of the population.
Most Iraqi Christians are ethnic Assyrians and members of the ancient Assyrian, Chaldean and Syriac churches.
Sanctions and warfare have taken their toll: half a million have reportedly left. The outflow has increased since 2004 due to attacks on churches, merchants selling alcoholic drinks, and professors and teachers. Christian women have been forced to don the hijab, quit their jobs or studies and remain at home. Many Christian families have emigrated to the Kurdish area, Jordan and Syria where there is a local Chaldean community which assists Iraqi refugees.
Syrian Christians comprise 6.5 per cent of the country's 17 million citizens. Syrian Orthodox and Catholic Christians enjoy a privileged position in secular Baathist Syria, where many joined the ranks of the ruling party. But some are leaving due to regional instability, the rise of fundamentalism and the fear that Iraq's instability could infect Syria.
Jordan's Christians, about 2 per cent of the population of six million, enjoy the protection and favour of the monarch and the establishment, and benefit from the kingdom's political stability. While some members of the Christian community are well-connected and wealthy, many remain poor and are eager to emigrate to lands where they feel they can make better lives for themselves and their children.
Many of Lebanon's Christians, who account for 35 per cent of the country's citizens, left during the civil war but flooded back to Beirut during the period of reconstruction. Encouraged by a business boom, they invested in hotels, manufacturing, and services.
But Israel's onslaught on the country's infrastructure during July and August dealt a severe blow to their confidence in the country, and the rumbling political crisis between the political establishment and Hizbullah is causing many to consider leaving for good.
Young Christians, in particular, argue that they have no future in Lebanon.
Many of those who have dual nationality have already departed, while others are trying to secure immigration visas.
In addition to the collapse of secular nationalism and the rise of Muslim fundamentalism, the clash of civilisations is another factor driving Christians from the lands where Christianity emerged and took root.
Western host countries make it easier for Christians than Muslims to emigrate.
Many Christians have relatives who are prepared to sponsor them in these distant countries.
If emigration continues at the current rate, there soon may be no Christians in the land of Jesus's birth, ministry and death. And only small pockets in countries where the church was originally established.