Middle ground to be squeezed in election

Another lurch to the political extremes is expected when Northern Ireland goes to the polls tomorrow.

Another lurch to the political extremes is expected when Northern Ireland goes to the polls tomorrow.

Fresh successes for the Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party and Gerry Adams' Sinn Féin are confidently predicted by both parties.

And where there is success there has to be failure. If the bookies are right Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble will be kissing goodbye to his parliamentary career and SDLP leader Mark Durkan will fail to begin his.

The bookmakers odds are on the DUP's David Simpson taking Mr Trimble's Upper Bann seat and Sinn Fein's Mitchel McLaughlin snatching Foyle from Mr Durkan who is bidding to keep the seat John Hume held from its creation in 1983.

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If the Former First and Deputy First Ministers do lose they may be forced to resign as party leaders - or face being pushed out.

It is particularly true of Mr Trimble who has survived a series of internal party challenges in recent years. While he has beaten off each one the loss of his seat to the DUP could well be the final nail in his political coffin.

With the potential for at least six of the 18 constituencies changing hands the UUP could be facing near wipe-out at the hands of the DUP.

The worst case scenario for them is the real possibility - according to the bookies - of Lady Sylvia Hermon in North Down being left as the party's sole MP.

The flip side for the DUP is the potential to end up with 10 seats in the British Parliament instead of the six they held before the general election was called.

Sinn Féin could up its number of abstentionist MPs from four to six at the expense of the SDLP. Then again the bookies may be misjudging the mood.

David Trimble may hold his seat, fellow UUP member and arch critic David Burnside may hold his and Mr Durkan may hold off Sinn Féin in Foyle.

But whatever happens there will be further gains for Sinn Féin and the DUP and a bigger headache for the next government when it makes the inevitable effort to resolve the Northern Ireland question.