Military shake-up could heighten Thai power struggle

BANGKOK – Thailand’s prime minister has proposed a reshuffling of top military leaders that strengthens the influence of royalists…

BANGKOK – Thailand’s prime minister has proposed a reshuffling of top military leaders that strengthens the influence of royalists and risks intensifying a violent power struggle.

According to a draft list pending royal endorsement, the top brass will be dominated by pro-establishment royalist generals opposed to the twice-elected former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and his powerful anti-government “red shirt” movement.

The military and Thailand’s monarchy are the country’s two most powerful institutions.

The reshuffle looks set to strengthen the alliance, raising questions over whether the military and its royalist backers will play an even greater political role.

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The top army chief post is expected to go to Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, who played a central role in the 2006 coup that ousted Mr Thaksin and convulsed Thailand into four years of political turmoil marked by deadly street riots, mass protests and army crackdowns.

Although he said this week the army should play no political role, he is well known for his opposition to Mr Thaksin, placing him in the same camp as a “yellow shirt” political movement that laid siege to Bangkok airport in 2008 in a protest that precipitated the removal of the last Thaksin-friendly government.

Political analysts say his appointment dims chances of reconciliation between the government and the red shirts following violence during April and May when at least 91 people were killed and nearly 2,000 wounded in clashes between red shirt protesters and troops in central Bangkok.

It could also embolden prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, sending a strident message of zero-tolerance of the red shirts.

Gen Prayuth’s expected appointment comes at a delicate time for Thailand.

Its economy is projected to grow up to 8 per cent this year.

“There will be tough rhetoric from him on the red shirts and it will make the situation appear more tense. He is expected to be much more willing to act if the red shirts rise again,” said a retired general, who asked not to be identified.

The timing of the shake-up, which could keep Gen Prayuth in the job until he is due to retire in 2014, is seen as crucial given the nearly year-long hospitalisation of King Bhumibol Adulyadej (82) and questions over the future of the royal institution when his reign comes to an end.

– (Reuters)