FOR the first time in a Budget speech, the Minister for Finance has given borrowing projections for the next three years.
In the first European style Budget, Mr Quinn revealed that he expected borrowing to increase in 1998 and remain at close to £900 million in 1999.
While unashamedly boasting the Budget was the biggest tax giveaway in the history of the State Mr Quinn tried to reassure financial markets that Ireland is still one course for the single currency.
The deficit is still low, although rising. It will be 1.5 per cent this year, according to Mr Quinn's calculations. That is up on the 1 per cent recorded in 1996, but still below the maximum 3 per cent allowed under the rules of the single currency.
The deficit will remain at about that level in 1998 and 1999, Mr Quinn confidently predicted. It, would have fallen in the last two years but for one other innovation a new contingency reserve.
The reserve will be used to pay for many unexpected crisis, such as the BSE crisis. So far £175 million has been set aside for 1998 and £325 million in 1999. Without these reserves the deficit would have fallen to 1.2 per cent next year and 0.9 per cent in 1999, the Department of Finance has estimated.
Mr Quinn was keen to stress that the other elements needed to join monetary union were still in place. Interest rates are low, he noted, and the debt is falling.
"The fall of almost £300 million in the national debt in absolute terms was the first time it has been reduced in almost 40 years," he told the Dail.
However, inflation could be one problem area in relation to qualifying for the single currency. In the Economic Background to the Budget the Department admits that there is danger that strong domestic demand could lead to inflationary pressures.
However, it goes on to stress that the "prudent mix of tax reductions and modest pay increases is designed to ensure that this does not occur".
Nevertheless, the Budget is expected to lead to an increase in real, disposable incomes and in the volume of personal expenditure of 5 per cent - according to the Department's own estimates.
The Department of Finance expects economic growth to remain buoyant this year, with Gross National Product increasing by 5.5 per cent. Thereafter they anticipate a 4.5 per cent increase in GNP in both 1998 and 1999.
In his Budget speech Mr Quinn, conceded that the Government has not been as effective as it wanted to in controlling spending. "It is essential that we improve our performance," he said, saying financial management reforms already in, train would help. He would also "reflect" on the relationship between his Department and the spending Departments, he said.