POLITICAL ANALYSIS: He walked away with a €42 million package, but Mr Dempsey's demeanour did not suggest vindication, writes Arthur Beesley, Policial Reporter
Mr Dempsey abandoned the notion that college fees for the wealthy would be used to fund access programmes for the less well-off on Saturday afternoon.
The bargain was put together in Mr Ahern's constituency office in Drumcondra where the Taoiseach met with the Minister for Education; the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, and the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy.
Mr Dempsey emerged after the 45-minute meeting with a Government promise to increase annual funding for educational disadvantage with a €42 million package. The most benign interpretation is that this was a significant achievement in the context of relentless spending cutbacks by the Government.
The reality, however, is that the size of the package probably reflects the scale of the political problem created in Mr Dempsey's principled attempts to make those who can afford college fees pay for them. That the uncertainty and Government discord persisted to within 10 days of the Leaving Certificate exams is a mark of Mr Dempsey's determination - and of his isolation.
This sense was reinforced last week when Mr Dempsey made a robust defence of his plans in the Seanad, in the face of opposition from the PDs and, significantly, within Fianna Fáil. Just days later, the Government has definitively pushed fees off the political agenda, implying that Mr Dempsey's Fianna Fáil colleagues in Cabinet shared the reservations expressed in the parliamentary party. Thus the Minister for Education seemed subdued yesterday when the time came to admit defeat.
While not everyone would walk away from a defeat with a €42 million package, his nervous tone did not smack of vindication. Gone was the confidence of his Seanad address, when he chose to attack his Fianna Fáil colleague Senator Mary O'Rourke and raised valid doubts about the credibility on the fees issue of the now-dominant Democratic Left cadre in Labour. Still, Mr Dempsey made it clear yesterday it was the Taoiseach who had instructed him, when he became Minister for Education last June, to address disadvantage. Indeed, Mr Ahern gave him support after he raised with Fianna Fáil TDs the possibility of imposing fees on the wealthy.
This was despite warning signals weeks ago from the PD camp that they would not accept fees. Similar reservations were expressed in Fianna Fáil, where backbenchers are faced with significant voter anger over cutbacks and the sense the Government misled the electorate last year over the true state of the economy. Even if fees were levied on only the very wealthy, the inevitable suspicion would arise that the income threshold would fall sharply.
If all that raises questions about Mr Ahern's command of the Government and its cohesion, it was Mr Dempsey who was sent out yesterday to clear up. It would have been a good day for the Minister if the fees issue had not festered for months, with persistent leaks about his intentions. But it was much too late for that.
Mr Dempsey knew some time ago that an income threshold of €100,000 would raise only €15 million for the Government. Even a week ago, it emerged that the option of charging €8,000 per year for the most prestigious programmes was under consideration.
It was only then that the PDs cried halt, when the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, went on television to rule out fees and complain that the junior coalition partner was not in the loop about Mr Dempsey's plans. In a scenario where Mr Dempsey was already losing large swathes of support in Fianna Fáil, this gave the PDs the initiative.
At St Luke's in Drumcondra, with the Opposition sensing that the Government was on the run, the fees enterprise came to nought.
To add to Mr Dempsey's sense of defeat, the compromise included €12 million in funding from Ms Harney's own Department.
With a major health reform initiative imminent, there was a sense in Government circles as the weekend approached that neither Fianna Fáil nor the PDs wished to go to the wall over fees. They now hope to have buried the issue.
For Mr Dempsey, the experience will mark the future path of his career. He might well endure the damage to his ego, but instinct is at the foundation of credibility in higher-level politics. Flanked by two officials yesterday, he seemed very alone.