Minister's warning prompts panic buying spree in Israel

The Israeli Defence Minister, Mr Yitzhak Mordechai, has sent his countryfolk in a panicked rush to hardware stores, telling them…

The Israeli Defence Minister, Mr Yitzhak Mordechai, has sent his countryfolk in a panicked rush to hardware stores, telling them yesterday to stock up with plastic sheeting and masking tape, just in case they have to seal themselves in a room in their homes to take refuge from Iraqi missile attacks.

The Palestinian leader, Mr Yasser Arafat, says that he recently passed on a message to the Israeli government from President Saddam Hussein, in which the Iraqi leader insisted he had neither the desire nor the capability to attack Israel. And the official Israeli assessment remains that the likelihood of Iraq targeting Israel is very low.

Nevertheless, Mr Mordechai's public advice to his citizens points to a desire by the Israeli authorities to prepare for a worst case scenario, in which a US-led attack prompts a repeat of the events of seven years ago, when Iraq fired 39 Scud missiles at Israel.

In keeping with that mindset, the Israeli army is reported to be calling up hundreds of reservists, for special one- and two-day training in dealing with the fallout from chemical or biological weapons. Last time, the Scuds carried conventional warheads; this time, if there is a this time, the army evidently fears the use of non-conventional weapons.

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Hospitals are also understood to be preparing emergency drills and the army is editing old public service broadcasts containing information on civilian defence against chemical and biological attack. Gas-mask distribution continues apace, with plans belatedly being drawn up for distribution to Israeli Arabs, foreign workers, tourists and Palestinians in West Bank areas still occupied by Israelis.

Somewhat impracticably, the Interior Minister yesterday suggested that it would make more economic sense for Israel to repatriate the hundreds of thousands of foreign workers, rather than issue them with gas masks.

In firing his Scuds at Israel in 1991, Mr Saddam sought to provoke an Israeli military reaction, hoping that this would enable him to break up the US-Arab coalition ranged against him, and woo Arab nations to his side, against Israel. But Israel, under tremendous US pressure, sat out the conflict.

This time, Israel has made it clear it would almost certainly strike back against Iraq if attacked. Its leaders' public statements to this effect are clearly designed to deter Baghdad. Yet there is a danger that they may have the opposite effect. Assessing that a strike at Israel would probably trigger Israeli retaliation, the Iraqi leader may calculate that he can thus easily widen the conflict into a Middle East war, in which the Palestinians, the Syrians and other regional players might line up on his side.

Thousands of Palestinians have been marching behind posters of Mr Saddam in recent days; Druse residents of northern Israel and others in Israel's million-strong Arab community have also held rallies in protest at the looming US military strike and in support of the Iraqi people.

Any Israeli counter-attack that took a direct route to Iraq, what's more, would involve Israeli aircraft crossing Jordan - another potential source of confrontation, given that Crown Prince Hassan said yesterday that his country would not permit Israeli planes to use Jordanian airspace.

Reuters adds:

Mr Arafat said yesterday he did not want to see Israelis hurt any more than Iraqis or Palestinians as a result of military action against Iraq. "I am doing all I can to prevent any military solution and we support a peaceful resolution because I do not want the Iraqi or the Palestinian people to be hurt. I also do not agree with hurting the Israeli people," he said in the West Bank town of Jericho.